Selective Tonight, Profitable Tomorrow with Betstamp Pro
+EV NBA Props that are actionable right now.
“Never stop. Never settle. Never compromise.” - Hennessy
The thing about doing these newsletters is you’ve got to handicap fast before the lines move on you in real time. Today alone, there were multiple spots I liked that already got steamed, forcing a pivot to new edges because we NEVER settle for mediocre bets with meh value. Price sensitivity is so key, so if a number moves and its no longer good, its rewrite the newsletter with new bets.
That being said, here are the +EV picks!
1. (NYK) Jalen Brunson under 9.5 Rebs + Assists (-110, Bet365 | 0.5 units)
+EV play: +5.08%
Projected RA line: 2.8 rebs/5.9 asts
The market is moving down to 8.5 and juiced 9.5s to the under. Also, the Rockets are the top rebounding team, so picking up easy boards is very limited.
Amen Thompson will be adding pressure and reduce his playmaking opportunities off the dribble. We already know Amen’s twin brother Ausar is a constant thorn in Brunson’s side.
Fiddle also released the under in the WHOP as a bet for this game (219.5 and 218.5), so the market is saying offenses are expected to struggle like in their last game
2. (CHA) Brandon Miller over 22.5 Pts + Asts (-115, Bet365 | 0.5 units)
+EV play: +5.55%
Projected PA line: 19.4/4.1
There are juiced 23.5s and 24.5s showing, so we’re getting ahead of the market at a strong number within projection while facing a Brooklyn Nets defense that is nonexistent. The line at Hornets -16 seems a bit too far. There is a league wide 1-2 point premium on these tanking teams being faded, and I tend to think thats an overcorrection rather than a fair value shift. The Nets can hang in there for this one, and Miller should stay on the floor.
Other honorable +EV props:
Kawhi Leonard under 39.5 PRAs (-112, DK | -115, ESPN, CZ)
Ousmane Dieng Double Double (+1600, FD, ESPN)
All of us here at NBA Betting With Fiddle/The Advantage think Betstamp has truly boosted our betting. From finding a good volume of bets through different markets, attacking “Fiddles Middles” in props with quantified negative holds, increasing our ability to scale with integration of betting exchanges, and remaining constantly aware of market directions and best prices customized to our outs, Betstamp is by far the best odds screen any of us has used.
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