Sharp Betting the 2025 Masters Tournament
WHATS GOIN' ON AT AGUSTA
The Masters Tournament is a great example of an event I will bet while knowing very little about. Maybe I will watch some, probably not much. However, because of the spotlight of this event there are a vast array of betting markets at every book and the odds open early so books can get action in. Thus, there are going to be opportunities to find clear +CLV spots before the first golfer tees off. High level bettors want a good volume of +EV bets, so this is one I outsourced to some golf experts and got some feedback.
My approach was two fold. First, be aware when markets start to open so I know my action was early and I could track early market signals. Second, send the screenshots to various golf experts I know and see where they match independent of each other. One of those experts was Mike LaFemina, who joined me to go over the masters in detail on The Advantage for a Sharp Betting the 2025 Masters Tournament podcast (linked below).
The other expert doesn’t do anything in the content space, but he responded with INSANELY DETAILED BREAKDOWNS following to my screenshots of the Caesars Sportsbook odds… Hope this helps 😉.
Listen to the pod and use the advice as a resource below.
*If you need a podcast link thats not apple or Spotify, comment below and I will reply with other link options. Please leave a review on Apple if you listen there :)
The 2025 Masters Matchups (odds via Caesars Sportsbook)
(these were two that I actually bet 0.5units each)
Dustin Johnson (+155) vs. Sergio Garcia (-195)
Player to Bet On: Dustin Johnson
Reasoning: The underdog here, I am banking on DJ finding some form in a tournament he usually finds success. Sergio Garcia is too volatile to rely on at his current form and juice.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Sergio is very motivated and has also had success here. It could come down to who is putting best.
J.J. Spaun (-125) vs. Daniel Berger (-105)
Player to Bet On: Daniel Berger
Reasoning: Berger is trending back from injury at a good time, has flashed signs of brilliance, and is the more talented player.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Berger's injury may flare up again.
Davis Thompson (-105) vs. Maverick McNealy (-125)
Player to Bet On: Davis Thompson
Reasoning: Thompson has been playing well of late and McNealy has not. Augusta rewards solid ball striking so Thompson has the edge here.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Neither player has experience at Augusta.
Sungjae Im (-115) vs. Tom Kim (-115)
Player to Bet On: Sungjae Im
Reasoning: Sungjae has the better Masters track record and is the slightly more consistent player.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: This is a toss up, they both have tremendous upside.
Robert MacIntyre (+110) vs. Corey Conners (-140)
Player to Bet On: Robert MacIntyre
Reasoning: MacIntyre is the better putter, which is important at Augusta.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Conners is a better iron player and Augusta is a second-shot course.
Aaron Rai (-145) vs. Laurie Canter (+115)
Player to Bet On: Aaron Rai
Reasoning: Canter is a streaky player and Aaron does well at Augusta.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Rai is a better ball striker.
Rasmus Hojgaard (-110) vs. Nicolai Hojgaard (-120)
Player to Bet On: Nicolai Hojgaard
Reasoning: Nicoli is the better of the two brothers.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Rasmus is a grinder.
Sepp Straka (+100) vs. Will Zalatoris (-130)
Player to Bet On: Sepp Straka
Reasoning: Zalatoris is not in form. Straka's game travels well and this is good value for an even match up.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Zalatoris has tremendous upside.
Scottie Scheffler (-155) vs. Rory McIlroy (+125)
Player to Bet On: Rory McIlroy
Reasoning: At plus money, this is good value for McIlroy who is more than capable of finding success at Augusta but I would not doubt Scotty ever. Higher confidence bet would be on Scotty here. Rory has been doing really well though with a win at Pebble and The Players just three weeks ago and a T-5 finish at the Valero means he’s more than ready to go.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Scheffler is the number one player in the world, but the pressure of being number one at Augusta can be tough.
Joaquin Niemann (-120) vs. Brooks Koepka (-110)
Player to Bet On: Brooks Koepka
Reasoning: Koepka's game suits Augusta perfectly and he always seems to come through stronger in major championships. It’s really all he cares about tbh.
Confidence Level: High
Considerations: Koepka is injured and can withdraw at any moment.
Daniel Berger (-150) vs. Harris English (+120)
Player to Bet On: Harris English
Reasoning: At plus money this is good value against a Berger coming off injury. I’d say that Harris has been playing a bit better than Berger as of late but Berger has had a couple of T-2 finishes already this year. Both have missed cuts so kind of a hard bet here. Harris is a good bet at +120 though.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Berger is the more talented player.
Bryson DeChambeau (+100) vs. Jon Rahm (-130)
Player to Bet On: Bryson DeChambeau
Reasoning: At plus money this is good value for a bomber like Bryson.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: DeChambeau is always an injury risk.
Sahith Theegala (-115) vs. Tom Kim (-115)
Player to Bet On: Tom Kim
Reasoning: Kim is more proven and reliable on the big stage.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: This is a toss up.
Xander Schauffele (-115) vs. Justin Thomas (-115)
Player to Bet On: Justin Thomas
Reasoning: I hate to not pick my boi Xander here but Thomas is more motivated this season to make the Ryder Cup. Xander took January and February off. His results this month have not been quite up to his typical standard. Honestly really like JT over Xander here.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Both are wildly talented and can win at any time.
Cameron Smith (+105) vs. Patrick Reed (-135)
Player to Bet On: Cameron Smith
Reasoning: At plus money, this is great value for a former British Open champion. I also just hate Patrick Reed since he has been caught it too many sticky rules situations in the past.
Confidence Level: High
Considerations: Reed is a grinder, but Smith is more talented.
Michael Kim (-185) vs. Nico Echavarria (+150)
Player to Bet On: Nico Echavarria
Reasoning: I grew up with Michael and think he’ll make the cut at Augusta if the wind stays down Thursday. If you want reliability I’d go with him but keep in mind this is his first Masters so he has lots to learn. His game suits this course well though. If you are only in it for overall value though, Echavarria is a talented player good enough to take him over Kim at +150.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Kim is playing extremely well right now so he would be the more reliable bet here.
Tommy Fleetwood (-110) vs. Patrick Cantlay (-120)
Player to Bet On: Patrick Cantlay
Reasoning: Cantlay is one of the most talented golfers in the world and has more upside than Fleetwood. Overall tough bet here but would pick Canlay.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Fleetwood has shown flashes of brilliance at Augusta.
Jordan Spieth (+125) vs. Justin Thomas (-155)
Player to Bet On: Jordan Spieth
Reasoning: At plus money, this is good value for a former champion.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Thomas is more motivated this year since he is Ryder Cup hungry.
Aaron Rai (-150) vs. Thomas Detry (+120)
Player to Bet On: Aaron Rai
Reasoning: Can’t rely on Detry. Rai has been playing very well this year.
Confidence Level: High
Considerations: Thomas won his first event not too long ago.
Tommy Fleetwood (-125) vs. Shane Lowry (-105)
Player to Bet On: Shane Lowry
Reasoning: Lowry is one of the best in the world at playing in the wind. If there is wind on Thursday and Sunday I expect him to outplay Fleetwood.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Fleetwood has shown signs of brilliance at Augusta.
Patrick Cantlay (-160) vs. Will Zalatoris (+130)
Player to Bet On: Will Zalatoris
Reasoning: At plus money this is a better value than Cantlay. I do think that it’s a risker bet but I like Zalitoris at Augusta with his new putter.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Zalatoris is coming off back injury/surgery but much stronger. Put on 20 lbs in the off season and is killing the ball.
Russell Henley (-125) vs. Corey Conners (-105)
Player to Bet On: Russell Henley
Reasoning: Conners is a great ball striker and that suits Augusta well but I would lean towards Russell here personally. He is an absolute grinder.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Not too sure on this one. Personally I like Russell as of late and I think this one is a toss up.
Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Min Woo Lee (-120)
Player to Bet On: Min Woo Lee
Reasoning: I like the value for a talented player who can get hot with the putter. He just got his first win recently and has been playing well. Plus he’ll have crazy amounts of “Let him cook” support and chef hats out there.
Confidence Level: High
Considerations: No question for me on this one. Let him cook!
Denny McCarthy (-110) vs. Taylor Pendrith (-110)
Player to Bet On: Taylor Pendrith
Reasoning: Strong off the tee, solid putter - weather may be a factor which makes me want to back players with distance
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: McCarthy is one of the best puttors on tour
Sahith Theegala (-125) vs. Sam Burns (-115)
Player to Bet On: Sam Burns
Reasoning: Sam Burns is the more proven player.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Theegala has a lot of upside given his play as of late.
Xander Schauffele (+145) vs. Collin Morikawa (-180)
Player to Bet On: Xander Schauffele
Reasoning: At plus money, this is an easy pick but his play lately is concerning. Morikawa’s game is well suited for Augusta and could be a more reliable pick.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Morikawa is wildly talented.
Justin Rose (-120) vs. Adam Scott (-110)
Player to Bet On: Adam Scott
Reasoning: I like the value here as both of these guys are trending down.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Rose has had flashes of brilliance but hasn’t been stunning on the leaderboards lately.
Tyrrell Hatton (-140) vs. Cameron Smith (+110)
Player to Bet On: Tyrrell Hatton
Reasoning: Don’t get me wrong, I am saying to bet against the former champ here but I really like Tyrrell if things get a bit breezy.
Confidence Level: High
Considerations: If Cam’s putter gets hot it’s over.
Joaquin Niemann (+130) vs. Jon Rahm (-160)
Player to Bet On: Joaquin Niemann
Reasoning: At plus money, Joaquin might be the better pick here as crazy as that might seem.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Rahm is much more consistent and an undeniable force at Augusta.
Max Homa (+140) vs. Harris English (-170)
Player to Bet On: Max Homa
Reasoning: Harris English strong distance player, low impact level by wind
Confidence Level: Strong
Considerations: Neither player is playing well. Homa is coming in injured and more English way more likely to bounce back at this course. Like to -200
Keegan Bradley (-165) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick (+135)
Player to Bet On: Matt Fitzpatrick
Reasoning: At plus money, this is good value for a US Open Champion.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Bradley is steady.
Matthieu Pavon (-110) vs. Adam Schenk (-120)
Player to Bet On: Adam Schenk
Reasoning: Your guess is as good as mine.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Fuck if I know here. Pavon won at Torrey awhile back but hasn’t done much since.
Tony Finau (-110) vs. Jason Day (-120)
Player to Bet On: Tony Finau
Reasoning: Day is coming back from injury and Finau has some pep in his step after his hole in one to make the cut in Texas last week.
Confidence Level: Medium
Considerations: Finau is a hot boi right now.
Max Greyserman (+125) vs. Michael Kim (-155)
Player to Bet On: Max Greyserman
Reasoning: At plus money, this is good value. Extremely talented and new.
Confidence Level: Low
Considerations: Kim has a higher upside.
Bryson DeChambeau (-155) vs. Brooks Koepka (+125)
Player to Bet On: Brooks Koepka
Reasoning: At plus money, I'm taking the healthy Koepka even thought Brysons game can put him in some great spots at Augusta.
Confidence Level: High
Considerations: Injury risk.