I have bet the over in every single game of the NBA finals thus far. Each time I got the best number the market offered, gained CLV with late over steam coming in, held a +EV ticket because of the line movement… and yet am being swept 4-0 with the under cashing in every single game. I am trying to determine if going back to the well is a sharp move because it continues to check all the boxes of handicapping that led me to a massive NBA Season, or a schmuck move because I haven’t learned my lesson yet 😂.
Earlier today I went on SportsGrid TV/Radio and explained how I liked the over. The hosts were adamantly on my side saying the unders have been an anomaly, and a case could be made for every game “should” have gone over. “Shoulda woulda coulda” does not bring back my money lost, but hopefully continuing to bet in this direction does.
So I am playing Game 5 Over 209.5 (-108) at DraftKings, 0.5u. I do expect late over steam to come in, it has happened in every game this series so I think it is safe to assume it will again. I expect the market to close around 210.5, and I’ll sit 1 full point and a few sends of vigorish ahead of the consensus line heading into the game. I’ll take that nearly every time for a small bet, and feel I can’t let a four game sample size outweigh a season of great process and dominant results.
Tomorrow I plan to send a written recap of the “Changes Coming to my Content.” Here is the pod linked again!