Strategies for NBA Live Betting
And some added Best Bets!
Another solid and winning night! Cavs didn’t need the +13.5, the +650 money line hit! I ended up buying onto some Celtics ML at halftime, trying to open a middle with Cs ML -500, Cavs +13.5, and cost myself a portion of the +650 big payout. However, still 3rd winning night in a row in a really sharp playoff market; I’m loving the results.
I also took some time earlier today with Mike Levy (@MPL1184) to review Strategies for Live Betting. This was a fun podcast for to record, could have gone on at least 30 minutes longer, and likely comes back with a follow up episode.
I asked Mike for a 30,000 foot view of live betting, then we reviewed Spreads vs MLs, statistics to weight in game for spreads and totals, how to understand some clock management for totals, dealing with a volume of games on a given night, etc… If you have any questions to follow up on/topics you want us to go deeper, let me know and I can weave it into our next convo.
One clarification:
In the introduction I said I don’t open live middles…. Obviously I open middles all the time, but always with pregame lines or dependent on a pregame ticket. I should have clarified, I do not go into live games with no bets, and then create a middle position based on what I am seeing. I know my guest Mike does that frequently and has better strategies for that type of approach.
New Added NBA Best Bets:
Celtics -7.5 (-1u):
Cs are 58% ATS after a loss this season and perhaps the most notable one was in round 1, game 3 in Miami. After the Heat torched the Celtics from the 3pt line, the Celtics made a concerted effort to run them off the spot and force difficult looks. I expect a swarming Celtics defense and a strong bounce back win. Sadly this moved from 7 to 7.5 as I was looking to grab it and got distracted, but I still find it playable for a full unit considering over 65% of games in these playoffs have been 10+ scoring outcomes, so I push away the significant between that hook as I would in the regular season. Bet favorites ATS, and dogs MLs in the NBA playoffs!
I have no best bets for tomorrow! I still have not hedged any of my deep long shot OKC/IND NBA Title Tickets. They continue to be the “sharp” sides of the game to game markets, so I am going to continue to evaluate and wait. The Knicks and Mavericks are banged up and it may catch up to them. Getting by this round without hedges would set up for massive wins.