The New March NBA Traditions
Thats generally not a good thing
The New March Traditions
Long spreads, more injuries than your local Emergency room, tons of bilateral knee-soreness AKA load management, and blatant tank-jobs (cough The Utah Azz) are the traditional staples of mid-March in NBA. This year looks largely the same... except for three new additions to the annual repertoire:
Boston Celtics scouts producing another shooter from the depths of the bench who can catch fire.
The NBA betting market completely shrugging off OKC injuries when it comes to line movement because they're fielding what would be an Eastern-Conference playoff team for a bench unit.
Teams playing guys they want to bench to tank, but only playing them 20 minutes. Skirting the player participation while skating the chances to win is management skill.
I guess a fourth could be The Advantage Live Show breaking down every side/total and sharp betting angle five days a week regardless of which star is in or out, how long the spread is, or how many fake injuries the Jazz can come up with for Lauri Markennan.
Seriously though Celtics. Where do you all find guys like Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and now Baylor Scheierman?
It truly does look like this is an arms-race between two superpowers in the East's Celtics and the West's Thunder. Boston was up to the task with their B squad last night, taking care of Brooklyn without needing Tatum or Brown. Will OKC be able to accomplish the same task tonight when they take on a battered Philly team on the tail end of a long road trip? A game Philly NEEDS to lose? I think so, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is with our BEST BET of OKC -9.5 against Philly (-112 @ FanDuel). We've seen what the OKC bench unit is capable of when you put the ball in their hands for extended minutes. They completely dismantled a decent Blazers squad in this form only 12 days ago! For these reasons, I don't think the line is high enough on this one and so far sharp money agrees. This line should be OKC -11.5 or even -12 in my opinion. I'm personally laying .75u on the -9.5 at FanDuel and would lay that amount up to -10.5. Above that and only risk .5u up to -11.5.
We've got more spots like this to get down on (if you know you know) tomorrow LIVE @ 10AM EST featuring Mike (@FiddlesPicks) and Drew (@RantingJohnson) via Twitter and YouTube (link below)! Breaking down every single spread, total, and of course some props via the one shot for BetStamp segment. Shout-out Mike for putting in that WORK in the studio making sure that jumper is cash-money so we can make even more cash-money! See you at 10!
PS. DO NOT ladder the OKC spread higher than whatever the line is currently at. If you do, Fids will find you and make you sit through yet another rant about how you're setting money on fire because derivative markets don’t offer good value, so just playing the straight line with all the money you were going to divide up is the best approach!
If you want to get all the picks in real-time in a locked text chat, use this Whop Picks button above to access the store page.
The cost is $100/month. HOWEVER, there is an offer for $50 back in the first month simply for leaving a review on the store page, AND you will receive an account credit for an entirely free month if we ever do have a losing month. It is as “risk-free” as any package in the sports betting space. The consistency in beating the closing line should lead to consistent results on solid volume.
*This newsletter post was authored by Drew Johnson