THIS EMAIL REPLACES FRIDAYS LIVE SHOW!
3 Middles, 1 Straight UNDER currently available.
”GoOoOoOoD Morning everybody, welcome to today’s NBA Sharp Betting Breakdown here on The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast, I am your host Michael Fiddle today is FRIDAY MARCH 28TH and we have a seven game NBA slate to break down.”
Sound familiar? 😂😂
No live show tomorrow morning this week! I am traveling for the weekend and despite leaving later in the day, I looked at the slate and its a very weak selection of games in both entertainment and betting value, so taking an hour tomorrow to do a show probably wasn’t worth any of our time. Instead, let’s keep up the detailed newsletters where I will provide all of my bets placed thus far and some notes on the games I did not bet.
All of the bets listed have been given out in the Whop Chat, the screenshots below are directly taken from the Whop and is exactly how the picks are released.
1. Clippers @ Nets:
Bets placed:
Under 216.5 (3u) AND Over 211.5 (2u)
Clippers -11 (2u) AND Nets +13 (2u)
The first releases yesterday came in Clippers @ Nets. After a win over the NY Knicks the other night (we were on that with the Clips!), the Clippers stay in NYC and now take on the Brooklyn Nets in the Barclays Center. It was VERY surprising to see such discrepancies open up in the lines from various books, but I don’t need to know why, I need to know how to react. Caesars and Bet365 opened the total at 216.5, DraftKings 214.5, FanDuel 211.5. FIVE points of differential on the board at the same time in an NBA total is so actionable and so +EV INSTANTLY. Just bet both sides and play the Fiddles Middle - you need 3 points of room to make it profitable, 5 is an insane +EV edge. With -110s on both sides, this is a 5% implied probability bet, and north of a 10% chance to hit this. You can see from the messages above I just bet both sides equally, then added exposure to the Under 216.5 as the main direction of the market, its now smack in the middle at 214 and will be interesting to see where this goes.
The same concept applies to the spreads, 2 points off of one another is enough to be a positive value middle - you only need 1.5 relative to important numbers (this is coming). Took them both equally, with -110s this is risking 0.2u to win 4u, with pushes on 11 and 13 as well.
My process here was flawless.
2. Cavaliers @ Pistons
Bets placed:
Pistons +9.5 (2units) AND Cavs -8 (1.5units)
The second release for Friday came in Cavs/Pistons. Cavaliers are on the second night of a back to back, going on the road to Detroit after beating San Antonio tonight in Cleveland. The Pistons are still without their star Cade Cunningham. A gross game where we may see reserves for the Cavs in a bad rest/travel/schedule spot, and a Pistons team led by Dennis Schroeder and Marcus Sasser. Because of the price relative to the news at the time, and the Cavs playing, it was a spot to back the Pistons but even that is gross. The middle presented itself with 1.5 points of discrepancy with important numbers (8 and 9 are two of the top 3 most common NBA outcomes over the last three seasons). It is only half a unit tilted towards Detroit, because I was unsure if Mitchell, Allen, Garland suit up again on Friday - but considering the current line is Cavs -6.5, grabbing the Pistons as direction was the correct decision.
3. Hornets @ Raptors - NO BETS
The market has heavily backed the RAPTORS since the open here. The tank may be over for Toronto, it seems they are locked into the 7th worst record in the NBA and there is little they can do to get below that. So I expect the Raptors to start playing with a winning effort again, while focusing on development and minutes nonetheless. It won’t be the Wizards where they actively bench starters in the 4th Quarter to lose at home to the Jazz. Lamelo is OUT for Charlotte, Barnes/Poeltl/Quickly are IN for Toronto. Need we say more? Raps or nothing, I still prefer nothing at current prices.
4. Knicks @ Bucks- NO BETS
I think this is a Knicks or nothing spot for me. The Knicks are down Brunson, and generally a score first PG is what destroys the Bucks, but thats because Dame is often the point of attack defender who gets crushed. Now without Dame, it will be interesting to see the chink in the armor of the Bucks defense- or will it just be a lackluster offense? The Knicks have OG as a primary Giannis defender, and options to throw 2nd looks at him. I expect Josh Hart to have a triple double - it wont be priced fairly to bet it, but it will still happen nonetheless lol. Knicks -1.5 or better, or nothing.
5. Warriors @ Pelicans
Bets Placed: Under 226.5 (2.5u) AND Over 222.5 (1.75u)
Having all of my bets have a middle component is very rare. Yesterday was 6-0 with no middles at all. Part of me thinks with NCAA Sweet 16 and MLB all going on and being added to sportsbooks as major betting markets, there became more vulnerabilities in the NBA numbers - and its for damn certain looking at my card.
226.5 as a total here was nuts. Zion and CJ are OUT for New Orleans while Murphy and Murray are already done for the season. They are done their 4 best players. The Warriors might return Steph Curry, who is back at practice but has not returned from the pelvic contusion injury. If Steph goes, MAYBE the number gets back to 226.5, but still probably not. This is an under or nothing, and I would still play the under at 224 currently for a small 0.5u-0.75u ticket.
6. Suns @ Wolves - BEST BET UNDER 227 (0.75u)
You can see in the photo above I knew I was going to play Suns/Wolves but was waiting. Ten minutes later I saw my strike point and the 227.5s start to drop, so I took a 227. I have this model at 227.4, so the number makes perfect sense, however the Suns made some rotation changes recently to emphasize the defense end and I think we will see that reduce the scoring. I suspect some people will be onto it tomorrow and will also close lower than 227. No way I am the only one who sees COLLIN GILLESPIE AND OSO IGHODARO getting serious minutes.
7. Jazz @ Nuggets - NO BETS AND NO ONE WANTS ME TO EVEN WRITE ABOUT IT LOL.
You will receive an email Sunday with Schedule Quirks for next week in the NBA, and we will be back with a NBA Sharp Betting Breakdown live stream on Monday at 10am ET. Until then you will hear from me if you in the Whop chat but otherwise, have a great weekend!!!
If you are interested in joining our community and getting all the picks in real-time in a text chat, use this Whop Picks button above to access the store page.
The cost is $100/month. HOWEVER, there is an offer for $50 back in the first month simply for leaving a review on the store page, AND you will receive an account credit for an entirely free month if we ever do have a losing month. It is as “risk-free” as any package in the sports betting space. The consistency in beating the closing line should lead to consistent results on solid volume.
There is a DIRECT PICKS CHAT which you are seeing screenshots from above, but there is also a COMMUNITY CHAT and a COMMUNITY BEST BETS where anyone in the group can write anything and give tips where other action is for them!