THIS GIRL IS ON FIREEEEE
I am basically Alicia Keys
First off, let’s not act like that song isn’t an absolute bop.
Second, 5-0 SWEEEEEEP on Monday. 14 of the last 16 days are winners! Nutty buddy, I am on FIRE!
Gotta love how my luck has turned the last two+ weeks. Proceeding this run was a 5 consecutive day losing streak where I was explaining how I was dominating CLV and getting so UNlucky. That has been totally flipped around. I actually had quite a few -EV tickets tonight and was expected to lose money. Instead, outright sweep, +4.5u, and it becomes one of the better days on the season.
Ultimately, that was lucky. If I complain about bad beats, I have to also point out lucky wins. They more or less balance out over time. Going 14 of 16 days winning, despite consistently (except today), putting myself in strong positions, is also an unrealistic/lucky short term win rate- it should be between 9 and 10. But I’ll stop complaining and start breaking down tomorrow.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday March 26th 🏀
Lakers @ Bucks Under 234 (1u)
This line is going to have strong value at close. Lebron was deemed doubtful, the spread moved from 4 to 8.5, and the total changed half a point… I immediately saw that and was like hmmm let me investigate. So I went to looked up the Lakers average points per game when Lebron misses- and its 119 ppg, still high. Their points allowed also increases without the king of the court. So I had a brief moment of pause and thought, well maybe this is priced appropriately. Ultimately, I still played it for 1unit because doubtful to confirmed out will also make it move, and so this still had wiggle room. Now as I check the board it sits at 232 on DraftKings and 231.5 on FD, and this had much more value than I originally expected. Womp. I should have tripled it, but at least I got some sauce on it.x
Warriors @ Heat Un 218.5 (-112, 0.75u)
A lot of the lines for this game are stuck in no mans land because of the injury report on the Miami side. Ultimately, the entire board was closer to 217 than 218.5, so there was wiggle room. Grabbing a -112 takes off about 1/2 point of that NBA totals value, so I was more like 1 point ahead as opposed to 1.5. I was not sure how much further this had to go, a little scared by how many popped back up yesterday hovering in this range, and played it for less than 1unit.
Pelicans @ Thunder Under 225 (-109, 2u)
This was a dumb dumb line. Another BetRivers showing up casually late to the party, and I’m the friend that constantly reminds them each minute they are late by making them pay and striking the odds. This opened line was 227, sharp books had this at a consensus 223 with -110 vig, and BetRivers offers 2 points back towards the original line and less vig? What in the world? Normally that would be, for real, a 10unit play, but since I did not get the opening line and rather one that already moved 2 points, the value to obtain as a playback was less even though the CLV seemed clear as day. I probably play 1unit back the other way pre tip.
Mavericks @ Kings Under 236.5 (0.75u)
I may be acting in reverse order to my typical approach here. This line seems to be consensus lowering, so I’ll grab under 236.5 at -110 because it will likely be a few ticks lower tomorrow morning. The Kings and Mavericks both enter this game on a B2B set, and its the first game of a two game between these teams. The games matters so much for standings and seeding, this is basically a mini playoff series. The defensive intensity should be high, the Mavs just played amazing defense against the Jazz last night. However, these teams can score at will, and it wouldnt surprise me one bit to see this go over 250. I see myself playing this back at full value or even more in the over direction once the number drops. I will always try to get the CLV first, then re evaluate, but this one is happening in reverse where I am kind of planning to meet or exceed this exposure the other way. If some players are ruled out, then I can keep it as is. Get the CLV, then re evaluate. That much remains the same.
And of course… Alicia is a QUEEN