Thursday Night Football Guide!
Best Bet Update and a some DFS thoughts
Impromptu Thursday afternoon email because I added a new bet, repositioned myself in the totals market, and have some DFS thoughts! Lets get right into it.
Best Bets:
Lions at Packers Ov 45 (1u)
Lions at Packers Un 45.5 (1.25u)
We are seeing heavy and late money come in on the under for this Thursday Night divisional game at Lambeau. My initial bet was on the over 45, but I am repositioning myself to the under side, opening up a positive middle, and reducing my overall exposure to only a quarter of a unit. The reason why late movement is so important to be aware of is twofold. 1. Because as we get closer to the game, we inherently have more information on how it will play out. In this case, injury reports of both running backs being active. 2. As we get closer to kickoff, the books allow higher limits, and big money can start to come in. We like to follow people slamming lines with high limits, that seems to be whats happening here on the under. We follow suit!
DFS:
Lions at Packers presents a great opportunity to target Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments in tonights DFS Showdown contests. Commonly referred to as GPPs, these are the contests that you have to hit a top 5-10% lineup in order to cash, but the returns are much higher than a standard 50/50 contest where you need to be above average to double up.
The reason to play GPPS tonight is because the Captain choice isn’t brutally obvious. Last week it was clearly McCaffrey, the week prior was clearly Jalen Hurts. In these GPP showdown contests, we like to choose a captain who can be a surprise highest scorer in the entire game. This week, that could be anyone from Goff, Love, Amon Ra, Gibbs, Montgomery, Watson, Aaron Jones, and maybe even a few others. Ownership will be dispersed, so take your pick at captain on who you think is a sneaky possibility to be the best player tonight!
I would still advise playing both QBs as Flexes at minimum, and if you do choose to Captain a QB, then play the opposing kicker!
Good luck tonight! Lets bring home the 💰
