Thursday Night Football Week 4
Cowboys @ Giants Betting Breakdown
Thursday Night Football week 4 features an NFC East divisional primetime matchup! The Dallas Cowboys head to East Rutherford to take on the New York Giants in the Meadowlands. Here is all you need to know about the betting market for this game.
The preseason look ahead lines were Cowboys -7 with a O/U set at 47.5. With the Dallas Cowboys struggling the previous two weeks, and the Giants looking like they have a little life, the reopen lines after Week 3 completed was Giants +4.5 and an O/U at 43.5.
This was initially the correct reopen. There is sentiment that the Giants are not as bad as public discourse because they won last week against the Browns, and should have beat the Commanders in Week 2. We have to remove outliers from our gambling sample data, and the Giants-Commanders Week 2 game was when the Giants kicker got hurt in pregame warmups and they could not kick a field goal or extra point! They had to go for it on fourth downs, not converting the big ones, go for 2pt conversions, and converted none of them! The Giants lost to the Commanders 21-18, despite scoring 3 TDs of their own and the Commanders kicking all 7 field goals. The Giants should have had 21 with PATs, and other field goal opportunities. They will have a kicker on the roster for Week 4, barring anymore pregame injuries!
At the reopen, I bet Under 44.5 (1u). I saw a consensus reopen at 43.5, with one lone book holding up a 44. It was a smart bet at the time, 44 is such a key number in NFL totals that if one book differs from consensus at that price, you absolutely have to bet it because it’s only a matter of time before it moves to a match. And it did, the books priced this at a consensus 43.75 for Monday and Tuesday (meaning -115 to the over at 43.5, -105 under). Holding a under 44.5 ticket, this is a strong spot.
Sadly- the Giants have ruled out two defensive backs and the total has come back up a full two points to 45.5. I am now behind the market by 1 point because of the news regarding Adori Jackson and Andru Phillips. I do expect 45.5 to remain the number until close. So I used an OUT and dumped off some of the exposure by betting Over 45 (0.5u - currently available at DraftKings). This accepted less than about 0.05u of vig loss simply to reduce and scale down the exposure by 50% on a line moving against me. Using outs and dump offs is a great strategy for market readers as news changes.
I have also bet 4 props for this game, and those are all in great places.
Dak Prescott Under 266.5 Passing Yards (0.25u) - despite the Giants having some guys out in the secondary, this number came in way too high for this current NFL and a short week primetime spot between divisional opponents. The line is now down to 256.5, and this is a strong position. In this spot there is both less prep time and more existing familiarity between teams and coaching staffs.
Daniel Jones Under 198.5 Passing Yards (0.25u) - this has bounced all around and is flat at the 198.5 at most books currently. I’ll probably jinx myself for saying this, but a short week primetime Daniel Jones under does not need much explanation.
Devin Singletary Un 62.5 Rush Yards (0.2u) - shoutout to Bet365, they have been the leader this season for NFL prop betting because they have -110s on both sides of the line. FD/DK/BetMGM/Caesars/BetRivers/PointsBet/ESPNBet, should I continue or you get the point- none of the others do that. B365 having the least hold makes it an attractive book for people betting NFL props. This was less juice and less yards than everywhere else, so I took it.
Malik Nabers Ov 69.5 Rec Yards (0.15u) - Despite being on DJ under yards, I took Nabers over. This is an example where a volume of good bets is what bettors are trying to do. We can get too bogged down on the culmination of positions, but just give me 1000x +EV bets and ill be good to go. Nabers was a few yards low, DJ was a few yards high, I played them both. Fortunately for me, the football side of this makes sense because Jones has been funneling the volume to Nabers.
My picks package sale is remaining active until the end of September!
From now until October 1st, the monthly package on my WHOP store page has a promo code offering $5 for the first month! Thats $95 off!
Using the link above, choose the monthly package and use code “September”
Instead of paying $100 per month, the first month is 5 bucks. You can cancel at any time!
Let’s make the first month incredibly easy to get access, let’s win together, and let’s have future months pay for themselves and then some! Of course, this shows a hopeful optimism to start out the NFL season well, but I do expect the vast majority of my wagers to be +CLV, my betting portfolio to always be +EV, and ultimately it should be profitable.
Little hint: the highest +EV way to get access would be to sign up for the monthly package for $5, and if you enjoy the private chat, cancel monthly and sign up for the bulk year at cheaper (which also has $100 off promo code).
I will also make the $50 back if you leave a review on the store page eligible in the second month for anyone who is paying $5 for the first month.