TRIPLE DIGITS!!!
+100UNITS!!! Game 7 Reviews, Grading Wagers, Hedge Updates, Round 3 Action!
There is so much to get through in this email- but we have to start with the Minnesota Timberwolves having the biggest win in franchise history. A 20 point comeback against the defending champs, on the road, in a Game 7!!! To reach the Western Conference Finals and have home court advantage against the 4 seed Dallas Mavericks. What. A. Day. For. Minnesota. Fans!!!! What a moment for Ant! What a clap back from Rudy against all the haters! KAT played phenomenal defense and had clutch buckets, not getting his hand caught in dumb fouls. The Wolves move on! Wow!
Despite betting Nuggets -4.5 in the game, I am truly happy from a basketball perspective that it is the Wolves moving on. While having tons of respect for both teams and all players, as a fan I prefer the Ant mentality of “this shit means the world to me,” more than Jokic’s, “I love the game but this is just a job” mindset. If i care so much about the outcomes and the awards, I want the players to live and die with it too.
Also, shoutout the Indiana Pacers!!! Shooting damn near 70% for an entire game, also on the road in game 7, is a feat we will never see done again. I’m confident in that. And it makes complete sense it was this Pacers team that set those types of scoring records all year long. Knicks fans can feel happy about their success and upcoming seasons, and the Pacers continue to catch some lightning in a bottle.
Here is a collection of wagers we can now grade with results from this weekend. None of these were part of the +7.82units previously documented as Round 2 results sent in Friday’s. The cumulative total here is +0.715u.
Pacers Live ML -1150 (2u to win 0.17u) ✅
Nuggets/Wolves Un 199.5 (1u) ✅
Nuggets/Wolves Ov 193.5 (-120, 0.4) ❌
Nuggets -4.5 (1u) ❌
Nuggets Championship +240 (0.5u) ❌
Jalen Brunson Un 34.5 series Avg (0.5u) ✅
Fading Josh Hart Reb Leader (1u) ❌
Cavaliers NBA Title (1u) ❌
Giddey Under 12.3 (1u) ✅
Giddey Un 6.4 Reb (1u) ✅
Jokic Ov 26.4 Points (1u) ✅
Jokic Ov 12.4 Reb (1u) ✅
Banchero Un 22.6 (0.5u) ❌
Durant Ov 6.6 Reb (0.25u) ❌
OKC Title 🤝 Mavs Series Hedge (net neutral)
So…. just doing some math here, if I am +91.55units on the season going into Round 2, then +7.82units prior to this weekend, and tacking on another +0.715… are you seeing what I’m seeing?!?
MY NBA 23-24 SEASON IS NOW AT +100.09 UNITS!! WHAT IN THE 🌏?!?!?
This year has truly been absurd. I have had consistently amazing capping and CLV rates, which led to record breaking success, and all in the time period where I made a real commitment to sports gambling being my primary revenue stream. I know I have gotten sharper myself, and thus I am not surprised to hit a peak, but so proud of myself.
Ok- I do not want to over celebrate because its very possible this dips back below the triple digits. When I broke my +50units pace way quicker this year, i dipped back below 50. When I broke my previous season high of +74units this year, I dipped back below +74. Now at +100, maybe 3rd time is the charm to not deal with the dip?? Here is to continued success 🍻🍻
Updated Hedge Position
Before we get onto individual game action, the last thing to update is my Indiana Pacers 500:1 NBA Title Ticket (0.5u) which was hedged with -245 Knicks to win 1unit. I am now in for 2.95units of exposure, with still 250 units of profit remaining. This sets me up to have a risk:reward scale of Pacers +8300 at 2.95units, instead of +50000 at 0.5units. I am playing back Celtics series price to win my entire 2.95u on the -900 Celtics line. If the Pacers end up advancing again, I have enough wiggle room to martingale hedge one more time… At this point, based on current pricing, this Pacers future is guaranteed to either break even or profit. The reason I am not further tilting towards the Celtics is because I have about 2u of Celtics title futures now, which will advance and be in a strong finals position against Dallas/Minnesota winner. If you need help with your individual Pacers 500:1 futures, reach out to me on the side and let me know risk/reward/any other hedges initiated and I can help you directly. I know my platform has grown immensely since I gave out that bet June 16th last year, so very few people here tailed it. If you are one of them, you’re a real one tho!!
Round 3 Action:
Celtics -9 (1u)
Rare moment to play into rest advantage and travel advantage. The Pacers are likely going to be on their last legs already in game 1 after going a physical 7 with the Knicks. The Pacers have been traveling on/off for every game since Game 4, and now have to go on the road to TD Garden in Game 1. This series is going to be another 3pt shooting variance play, but I’ll take the Cs to dominate game 1. It may be on of the last true rest/travel adv spots in the NBA season that I play into! Dallas/Minnesota is a tough one because Dallas now goes on the road after closing at home, Minnesota goes back home after closing on the road- and they have 3 days till it starts. Pacers here, rough spot alert!
