Two Play Thursday
Three Prop Thursday as well!
As we get into April, we are going to slowly ramp down daily plays and prep for playoff action. A bunch of these games are going to have wonky rotations, confusing motivations, spontaneous injury reporting, and for that reason line movement and the factors I rely upon are harder to read. There will be games where action is straightforward, 76ers vs Heat tomorrow would be an example despite not having action in that one. I will still cap all games, but know historically volume drops.
I will also be doing a solo show, a detailed strategy podcast, about NBA Playoff Betting. Stay tuned for that next week!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday April 4th 🏀
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks Under 231.5 (1.5u)
I have played the Dallas Mavericks total in four consecutive games. Let’s go through them. Last game vs the Warriors, grabbed Under 235 right at open and did not bother to play it back. The previous two games were in Sacramento, I played under 236.5 in the first game, outright winner, then tried to middle the second game by playing the open over 228.5 and the close under 232.5, and it still went under… Now I am playing the game against the Hawks under immediately at the opening number. We will hear about the Mavericks defense trend later this week, by which point it will probably be priced out, and I’ll be glad I recognized it from the jump!
The Dallas Mavericks defense is peaking. Between Gafford and Lively, they have 48 minutes of athletic rim protection. Their wings have length and are emphasizing the close out because if they get beat, the help defense is there. They are turning into Magic West. DraftKings opened this at 231.5 and I knew to grab the under, FD opened a full point lower. I played for more than 1u because Atlanta has been wonky in injury reporting, and if they any starters this can drop hard and have huge playback room. Assuming all available guys play, this should be around 229.5 and I can still playback some at even value or watch the first few minutes to understand the early pace.
Denver Nuggets -3 (-108, 1u)
Kawhi Leonard is already ruled out, and the Nuggets have upgraded Jamal Murray from out to questionable. If Murray plays, this swings 2 more points. This was an easy number to grab because the Clippers have been struggling, the Nuggets are such a well oiled machine playing for the 1 seed, I could grab low vig and before any key numbers, and possibly benefit from injury news. The available options were Denver Nuggets -2.5 at -115 or -3 at -108, I took -3.
I am also writing the Player Props article for Action Network tomorrow. I gave out Bogdan Bogdanovic Ov 17.5 Points (-111 FD), Draymond Green Ov 5.5 Ast (-140 DK), and Jokic Un 0.5 3s (+186, FD). I am betting the first two myself because I have been doing great on props for them and happy to give a few out here as well. I am 7-1-1 in my last 9 and I will tweet out the link to the article tomorrow when its up so you can read the breakdowns!