Week 1 NFL Best Bets & Last Chance to Grab Flash Sale
I am writing this newsletter post in the midst of a 6 day win streak, starting the NFL season 2-0, and crushing the back half of the WNBA season. Yet in reality I am at such a loss for words over the Russell Wilson situation. I feel like I already lost a huge bet and I am trying to wrap my head around what seems like the worst bad beat in my betting career - and nothing is even official! But I have been around the block with football long enough to know that not getting practice reps with the “1s” on the Friday before game day is far more doubtful than questionable. As of now, it seems that Russ will not play. No matter what ends up happening, I will go into detail on that bet on the next podcast that I do (hoping Monday pod to break down WNBA Tuesday).
Before I list my NFL Week 1 Best Bets, let me say that these lines have been available for months and the NFL is the biggest betting market. This means some of my bets may have moved a bit more than they normal, but it also means current numbers are likely super sharp! I would be very careful betting into NFL Week 1 lines now if you do not have anything already in.
I was talking with another pro earlier today who said the reason he did not bet into Chiefs/Ravens was because he saw that even smaller shops were willing to take up to $100,000 on sides and totals for that game. That is probably 3x normal limits. If the limits are higher, the books are more confident in their lines, and thus as a bettor you would have to be even more confident in your bet. On a flat number, that’s tough…
One way to circumvent betting into super sharp lines but still having action on the slate is playing DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports). You can create a DraftKings or FanDuel fantasy lineup, be matched up with another player of similar rank, and bet that your players exceed your opponents. The reason why this is an ideal work around is because the prices of the players have not changed, so the playing field is actually even more favorable to jumping in late because you gain information without losing any value. Prettttty neat ayyy. My recommendation would be to play DraftKings Head to Head contests and definitely use these four players as a CORE 4 to build around:
- Anthony Richardson ($6,300): Will be chalk, but you have to take it
- Tyreek Hill ($8,700): Laughable price for cash contests.
- Alvin Kamara ($6,700): DraftKings is full PPR, FanDuel is half PPR
- Seahawks DEF ($3,400): Bo Nix first game is road in 12th Man Seattle
Ok… the graphic we’ve all been waiting for is BACK!
This is the last newsletter email I will send while the huge flash sale is active!
If you want access to the private chat with all of my picks- it is $95 off and only $5 to join for the first month. You can cancel at any time.
To join, click the WHOP button link and use promo code “NFL5” on the monthly package option.
I want to make it easy for people to join, to both see the value of the private chat and have it fund itself moving forward. Going on a 6 day win streak upon activating the sale was well timed, but not normal. What is normal for me is to be ahead of the market on nearly every bet that I make, which does lead to long term profitability.
I also already gave out WNBA Saturday Mercury @ Storm Un 166.5 and Sunday Aces @ Liberty Un 168.5.
Pro tip: the highest +EV way to get access would be to sign up for the monthly package for $5, and if you enjoy the private chat, cancel monthly and sign up for the bulk options cheaper if you enjoy it)
I also give $50 back simply for leaving a review on my store page. This is eligible in the second month for anyone who is paying $5 for the first month.