Week 2 Full Betting Card

Below is the final betting card for week 2, my Core 4 for DraftKings Daily Fantasy lineups, and a guide to handling the two potential places for buybacks.

REMINDER! Today is also the last day the Free Chris Olave Rookie Card Giveaway is running. All you have to do is comment on this post, and you are entered to win! Let me know which bet is your favorite, which one you dislike the most, or just let me know what type of wings you’re getting for the games. I’m a medium spice, flats only kinda guy.

*The Houston Texans -1 bet is newly added. This is another clear sharp side, with 32% of the bets but 68% of the money on this side. I went a small 0.75unit play because I missed getting this at +1 when they opened as a home dog. The texans played the Ravens competitive, and now Stroud gets a home game while Richardson plays his first road game.

Good luck & enjoy your Sunday!

This week there are three potential options this week for opening up middles and getting into the buyback market.

1. Jets at Cowboys Under 46 → Buyback Ov 38.5
Cowboys/Jets Under 46 was sent out in the First Bets of the Week email on Monday morning, before Rodgers would later go down on Monday Night Football. Well the injury caused us to obtain Sad CLV, where we dont root for it, but it does benefit our betting portfolio, and we see the current Cowboys/Jets total at 38.5 at every book. I am going to keep waiting on this and see if it ticks down to 38 anywhere, as we know 38 is a key NFL totals number. If we reach 38, I recommend between 50-66% buyback, taking the OVER 38 and opening a middle with key numbers 38, 40, 41, 44, 45 all in the middle. If it stays at 38.5, we dont get the push on the 38, and thus I would recommend between 33-50% buyback.

2. Browns at Steelers Under 42.5 → Buyback Ov 38.5
The reason why we have obtained so much closing line value here is because of the weather forecast for Monday Night’s Browns at Steelers divisional primetime game. Let’s keep waiting to see what happens with the forecast, lets keep waiting to see what happens with the line movement. I plan to have a similar approach to the Jets/Cowboys total with relation to the number 38. If it reaches 38, then lets go for a 50-66% buyback, if it stays at 38.5, then take the over for a 33-50% buyback.

3. Saints at Panthers Un 40.5 → Buyback Ov 39.5
This would be a 25% recommended buyback. By the statistics, opening this middle does not seem to a positive expected value, but it does! Middling with -110s on both sides creates a 5% implied probability and a 20:1 potential payout, and while 40 is the second most common outcome in NFL football, it is not north of 5%. However it’s not that straight forward. The value becomes present when we consider how often spreads between 40.5 and 39.5 end on the 40, which is certainly more often than a game with a spread of 51 landing on 40. We also have seen this line bounce a bit. It reached 41 at one point, came back down to 40 most of the week, and ends at 39.5. With mixed indicators, its good to get some buyback when you have a positive middle.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments!