Week 3 Thursday Night Football Best Bets
A full game under but some player prop overs!
The last week of my betting has been insane. Let me gloat! I returned slightly above a 25% ROI on all my NFL Week 2 bets placed. I won on NFL sides and props on Thursday (no total play). I also won on NFL sides, totals, and props on Sunday. I even won my survivor pool with the Chargers. Plus, I’ve been crushing the WNBA—I won on Sunday and again today.
For those wondering why I didn’t mention Monday, it’s simply because I had no action! I avoided that catastrophic Philly loss, and there were no WNBA games.
So far in $EPTEMBER, I have hit 43 of my last 67 positions, giving me over a 64% hit rate. Ninety-five percent of those are in the -110/-115 range. This run is insane, and I hope it keeps going. Based on my current positions and where the market stands, it seems to indicate that it will. I have 4 out of 5 Thursday Night Bets with +CLV, and 7 out of 8 Sunday Week 3 Bets also with +CLV (with some weight behind the exposure!). Additionally, my WNBA Playoff Card already has an 8-unit +EV middle set up for Game 1. Hopefully, this gloating doesn’t bite me in the 🍑!
Let’s keep it rolling and break down Week 3 Thursday Night Football.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS (-6.5)
Spread: Floating around -6.5 with occassional 7s showing up. Current 6.5 consensus with 7 at Caesars.
Game Total: Open 39/38.5, Current consensus 38.5
Expected Weather at Kickoff: 72°F, Slight Chance Thunderstorms (29%), Low- No Impact Wind
Best Bets:
Game Total Under 39 (0.5u)
Prop OVERS
Wilson Ov 63.5 Rec Yards (0.1u)
Breece Over 28.5 Rec Yards (0.1u)
Breece Ov 65.5 Rush Yards (0.2u)
Rhamondre Ov 65.5 Rush Yards (0.2u)
Breece Hall Rushing Yards is 1 yard behind the market, every else slightly above.
I have very small exposure on this card for a reason! 39 moving down to 38.5 is not off aa key number. 37, 38, and 40 are all VERY important. Seeing a 39 does not entice me to look for a place to lay a big bet. Also, seeing a current 38.5, I think this is still tail-able to the under. Gaining a few yards on props in a market with a 6.5% hold is good not great, worth betting but not at a large scale.
Upcoming Content
• Wednesday Night “NFL 2 Week Check In Podcast” with Richie Giner
• Friday WNBA Playoff Breakdown Podcast with Drew Johnson
• Saturday Gridiron Gold Week 3 Detailed breakdown of WONG TEASER STRATEGY
• Sunday morning Week 3 Full Best Bets & DFS Core 4 Summarized
RE ACTIVATION OF WHOP SALE!
So many people took advantage of the $5 First Month Flash Sale I offered on my picks package prior to Week 1 of the NFL. Those who signed up have been enjoying $EPTEMBER alongside me! 😂
Since then, there has also been significant growth in my newsletter, with my Gridiron Gold series gaining traction (hi!). As a result, many people who missed that sale are now seeing this opportunity. Whether you didn’t jump on it or never saw it, it’s reactivated—$95 off the first month!
I believe the value of the chat becomes obvious once you join, so I’m happy to reopen the door for just $5 for the first month. Let’s win together and make the WHOP pay for itself and then some! As I mentioned two weeks ago, I understand this demonstrates a hopeful short-term optimism, but considering my current positions and how consistently I get ahead of the market, to me this reflects objective and quantifiable positive expected value rather than just cockiness or confidence.
USING THE WHOP LINK BELOW, ENTER PROMO CODE “$EPTEMBER” ON THE MONTHLY PACKAGE OPTION, AND IT WILL BE REDUCED TO $5 FOR THE FIRST MONTH AT CHECKOUT!
The promo code will be active for the rest of September, and then October brings the NBA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We need four times the exclamation marks to express my excitement. LEBRON AND JA MORANT ARE COMING SOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have some fun content to announce for The Advantage in the coming weeks, so stay tuned!