Week 4 Best Bets Thread & Kenny Pickett Rookie Card Giveaway

Trying something new this week! Instead of multiple emails where I add write ups, this post will be a running summary of them that I can update and edit. I’ll still send a mid week email with some content, and mention new bets, but it will be shorter and more digestible, and write ups will be more organized in one place. If you see me tweet a bet this week, it will have a write up on this link very shortly after.

Before we get into Week 4, two things. First, let me acknowledge how BAD week 3 Sunday treated me. Ugh. It was a slow and steady 5unit loss on the day, it just kept rolling on.

After entering the day with +8.23u, I now sit at +3.23u. I was in such great positions, I felt my exposure, the closing line value I obtained relative to key numbers, playing only Wong teaser legs, everything was very well situated. The ball just didnt bounce my way. I remain stubborn to my process, my track record speaks much louder than a one day sample size.

Second, as always, we have another Free Rookie Card Giveaway. This week will be a Kenny Pickett Rookie Card. You guys know the drill, simply leave a comment on this post, or share the post with a friend, and you are entered to win!

Let’s get right into the Week 4 write ups.

In Sunday’s email I mentioned I hopped on a few look ahead spots for Week 4 before any week 3 games were played. I’ll start there, these were placed on 9/23/23.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Under 44.5 (-110 Caesars, 1u)
This one should have been a really simple cap that I hope anyone reading this newsletter can start to piece together for themselves moving forward. Divisional games = less scoring. 44 is a very key number. Both of these week 3 games were trending towards the under, and look ahead splits showed under to be the sharp side. If Week 3 panned out as expected, I knew this would drop below the 44, so I grabbed it early. Now reposted at 42 on PointsBet and 41.5 at DraftKings, im not opposed to playing those for half or quarter of unit, or just skip it. Its not going to move much further down than 41/41.5, so those current numbers have less value.

Tennessee Titans +1.5 (-110, 0.5u DK)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Un 44 (-110, 0.75u DK)
The reason to play the under for more exposure than the spread was because i foresaw more obtainable closing line value in the total moreso than the spread. The spread originally opened at 3.5, but was down to 1.5 with the uncertainty of Joe Burrows health. I was on the Titans for Week 3, so i didn’t mind backing them again, and Mike Vrabel is the best coach against the spread as an underdog since he entered the NFL, he actually wins north of 65% of games as an underdog outright! its insane! Now as a home dog, I am willing to back Tennessee. These underdog and unders are correlated, so I played them both.

Placed on 9/24/23:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans Ov 40.5 (0.5u PointsBet)
40.5 was the opening line for this game. Based on the look ahead splits, I was eyeing the over. 56% bets, 63% money, with 41 (the most important totals number) on my side. Then week 3 played, and both of these offenses really showed they can move the ball. And then DraftKings reposted the line at 41, so I ran to the board, found a remaining 40.5, and grabbed it. The reason for only half a unit is because while both of these offenses impressed in Week 3, both of these defenses have impressed a bit this season too. Theres also a general sense of schmuckery I would feel if I bet this heavily and then a steelers Texans game ended 20-13 😂😂.

Placed on 9/25/23:

Atlanta Falcons +3 (+100 Caesars)
I have been backing the Falcons in futures and in weeks one and two, and although I took a week off, I am back to the well with the Dirty Birds in Week 4. They play in Jacksonville, a team expected to emerge but is really struggling. The emergent team here may really be the falcons, we have sharp action on them every week, and the key number of the 3 still available. Grabbed it before it gets to 2.5.

Placed on 9/26/23:

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Ov 45 (-110, 1u PointsBet)
Splits suggested the over to be the sharp side into this game from a look ahead perspective, and the number was 46! When it reopened at 45, I was certainly eying the over but was just unsure why it dropped a point. Now that its trending back up, seeing Fanduel move it to 45.5, and DraftKings juicing it to -112, I’ll grab one of the remaining -110 45s and get the opening line and expect it to close at 46. Full unit because of the high confidence in obtaining CLV, and the ability to buyback the other side depending on how far it moves before kickoff Thursday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 42.5 (1.25u, -110 Fanduel)
Reverse line movement! There are 37% of the bets but 48% of the money on the over, and yet the line reopened for the week at 42.5 and is moving to the over. There are lots of 43s and even 43.5s on the board. Knowing I have 0.75u on the under 44, I am repositioning myself to the over while also opening up an awesome middle with how important 43 and the push one/win one 44.

New England Patriots +7 (0.5u)
New England Patriots +260 ML (0.25u)
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys Un 43.5 (0.33u)
I really like the correlated spot between the under and underdog in the Patriots/Cowboys game. Both of these teams lack a level of explosiveness on offense while having great defenses. The Patriots are a strong road team that limits turnovers, limits penalties, plays strong clock management and field position, and will likely lean on the run game. It will be hard for Dallas to cover more than a touchdown in an under spot, and I added a flyer on the ML.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110, 1u)
This line is showing clear Reverse Line Movement relative to the most important number in NFL betting. The Bills are taking less than 30% of the money, but the line is moving from -2.5 to -3 at all the books, so I grabbed one of the last 2.5s remaining. That CLV is always worth it, it opens the possibility for buybacks, and I’m backing the home team favorite in a game with a massive 53.5 total. It all correlates, I’ll be part of Bills Mafia on Sunday.

Placed on 9/28/23:

Lions at Packers Under 45.5 (-115 Fanduel, 1.25u)
I was previously on the OVER 45 earlier in the week, and now I am repositioning myself, reducing my overall exposure to only 0.25u (with 1u on the over), as I re evaluate the market and see signs of this moving sharply the other way late. I don’t know why it’s moving, but I know these late movements are significant. I also still have a positive middle on the key 45, and now have the very key 44 on my side of the win. These markets are sharp, and we need to constantly check in and evaluate or positions!


** Check back to this post throughout the week to see new bets and new write ups added! I will still send emails with content and acknowledge what new bets are coming in, but this should keep it all more organized!**