Week 5 Best Bets & Mid Season NFL Futures Added
This post contains the first batch of bets I’m giving out for NFL Week 5, and some NFL futures I added as we hit the quarter season mark! I will also continue to update if I add any new wagers, so be sure to check this link throughout the week.
Before we get started, one reminder!
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Ok, here are the Best Bets for NFL Week 5:
Tennessee Titans +1.5 (-113 BetRivers, 1 unit)
This was a spot I was eying in the look ahead numbers, and when it first dropped I thought was the obvious signs. Early market showed some action on the Colts, but it was likely line movement related to the Jonathan Taylor news, and not based on the handle of bets that showed Titans as the sharp side. The titans flashed to +2 at one point, but since has steadily come back their direction, to the point they are road favorites. Having the +1.5 is awesome considering 1 is the 6th most common NFL outcome, and this gives me the win on both sides of that close of a game. The difference between +1 and +1.5 is worth 6c on the dollar for the hook. Getting the +1.5 at -113 at BetRivers was the best option for me on the board considering DK had +1 at -108, and FanDuel had it at +1.5 at (-120). In this scenario, the DK +1 at -108 is more valuable than the -120 line at FD. Read that slow/again so it clearly makes sense, or check out the week 5 slate breakdown where we explained it in detail!
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-110 PointsBet, 1 unit)
Another spot I was eying in the look aheads! This line was originally Falcons -3, was the sharp side to Falcons -3.5 in the look aheads, and then Week 4 was played where the Falcons looked terrible in London and the Texans looked strong at home against the Steelers. The line dropped hard to Falcons -1 at the reopen, and the sharps came back in on the Falcons again. This is a very strong read and great spot. Im fine with higher exposure if you dont have 3+ units on Falcons in a NFL Futures portfolio already like I do.
Steelers +4 (-110 FanDuel, 0.75 unit)
There are a few reasons to back the Steelers in this spot. The betting trend of Coach Tomlin as a home underdog is dominant. The divisional matchup between these teams and the historical frequency of it being a 3 point game makes taking the +4 advantageous and a win on any 3 point outcome. The betting splits showing 27% of the bet tickets, but 50% of the money is on the Steelers, so this is the sharp side with big money tickets coming in. And we have the correlation of taking the points in a game that is expected to be very low scoring… All this and still the reason why this bet is slightly less exposure than the other two, Steelers are dealing with a lot of injuries, there is uncertainty to if Pickett will start at QB and therefore its not very likely to obtain CLV by kickoff, I just like the line where it is, but likely wont be ahead by start time.
NFL Futures Added
Dan Campbell Coach of the Year (+350 DraftKings, 1unit)
Todd Bowles Coach of the Year (+1800 DraftKings, 0.25unit)
These are bets I like while also being ways to hedge some NFL futures positions I’m already on. As someone backing the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North, and watching the Lions already win in Green Bay, its an early way to pivot and say well if the Lions keep this up, Dan Campbell is likely Coach of the Year. They have been great, dealt with a rash of injuries and are still winning, have multiple prime time games (2-0 already in them, another one on Thanksgiving), dont have an MVP candidate on the team, and have multiple players high up for Rookie of the Year races, which shows great coaching and development. I think this award is Campbells to lose and +350 may be too short.
On the other hand its also worth sprinkling on Todd Bowles at 18/1, the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccanears. They are 3-1 heading into the bye, Baker looks resurgent, the defense is stout, the weapons are healthy, and the schedule and division remains pretty easy. Everyone expected the Bucs to be a sinking ship this year, and they may have another home field playoff game and be better without Tom Brady. Whoa, 18:1 makes these odds too long and he will start getting recognition very soon if this continues.