We're Even and Going to Indy

5 +EV Props for Game 3 with Betstamp Pro

Don’t lie. You we’re either a nervous Thunder backer or a anticipatory Pacers backer getting reallll jittery when the lead was cut to 14 in the 4th quarter.

No fireworks this time, the 95%+ likely outcome ended up being the outcome. OKC wins Game 2 by sixteen and we are tied 1-1 headed back to Indy. Right now…

- The series is back to Thunder -550ish, this is right at the price of the series AT OPEN, before money came in and pushed it to like -700ish.

- I think OKC -4.5 (-114 FD), -5 (-110 DK) for Game 3 are numbers I really like and anticipate close with +CLV

- Chet and Hartenstein played together for a spurt - the question is was that intentional or a reaction to Luguentz Dort being in foul trouble?

- Key Stats: OKC and IND both finished with 82 FGA, this is a huge win for Indy. OKC got to the line 7 more times, converted 10, and also shot a higher percentage. Not a surprise, but important win for OKC here. Thunder won the rebound battle this time after losing G1 by 17 in that category (I think this is an incredibly overrated stat, I’ll talk about it tomorrow).

FIVE GAME 3 PLAYER PROPS W/ BETSTAMP PRO
As I mention on the show daily, BetStamp Pro is the odds screen that I use and is laughably good at scouring the market for +EV props. I plucked one line each from various shops that is a good price compared to the market. Bet any of the ones you like - and check out betstamp for their odds screen, tracking tools, and even betting strategy information in articles/podcasts.

Siakam Over 3.5 Assist (+134 FanDuel).
This is about +110 everywhere else after Spicy P had four dimes in Game 2. Do I really care about his last game? Not really. What’s notable was he only played 30 minutes because the game got out of hand late and Carlisle pulled the plug first. Over the last month he is averaging 36. We also have a spread at -5 instead of -11.5, this game should be tighter, he could play closer to 40. This would be a volume and usage play at a good price.

Cason Wallace Double Double 110:1 DraftKings.
He will be starting Game 3, AGAIN. Talking heads blew smoke about OKC Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault changing his starting lineup for Game 1. Those people didn’t realize OKC started Game 1 on a 7-0 run, up 9 after 1Q, up 12 at half, up 15 in the 4th, and then they missed a ton of shots while Indy made a ton. It’s a make or miss league. Cason was right back to the starting lineup in game 2, same game with a different ending. Cason should play 25+ minutes, and some of the iHart advanced matchup stats shows OKC wont be going MORE to him. It’s Cason’s time to shine. Do I think this hits?

No. Do I think the expected hit rate exceeds the implied probability of the odds? Yes.


Obi Toppin Under 4.5 Rebounds (-105 Bet365)
Obi Toppin Under 6.5 Reb + Assist (-140 ESPNBet)
Two birds with one stone for this write up. These are good prices to market, considered +EV, but I am personally most hesitant here. Obi’s playing time is guaranteed because the Pacers are thin in this matchup. McConnell is such a bad fit, Pacers got COOKED in the non Hali minutes with TJ at the helm. Sheppard was scared to shoot, Mathurin was BBQ Chicken vs SGA, that’s the matchup dream for Oklahoma City. The upside to these plays, his role is really to be strong in transition + a catch and shoot role player. He is not doing much offensive glass crashing or playmaking.


Jalen Williams Over 1.5 3PM (-105 BetMGM)
He also is going to get plenty of playing time and easily multiple opportunities. This one is a bit narrative based (and yes 100% a good price) because people question JDubs ability in big moments. He proved it to me all season and these playoffs he has progressed. The opps will be there, can he knock them down? “iS hE bUiLt FoR tHe MoMeNt?”

ALL THAT AND IM LIVE AT 10AM ET, LETS GO!

Breaking down every side and total on the card - also per the ingredients in my refrigerator right now I am 100% making a drink on the show. What am I mixing up?!?