WNBA Best Bets Friday July 5th

Action in every game!

Right now I am doing way more gambling, watching, and content creation for the WNBA than I ever imagined I would. The reason is simple: I’m fucking impressed with the high level of ball being played.

The difference in WNBA basketball from 5 years ago to today is reminiscent of the changes we’ve seen in the NBA over the course of the last 20 years. There was a recent clip of COACH JJ Reddick showing his subordinate player Lebron James his second shot attempt in the NBA. There were like 7 players packing the paint and no floor spacing.

The WNBA just a few years back was really a battle to win in the paint. Dominating interior scoring and having an advantage on rebound opportunities was a recipe to becoming elite in the league. It’s not that simple anymore; the shooting, spacing, and movement has skyrocketed. Now the Minnesota Lynx are a top team in the WNBA, they are #1 in 3 Point Shooting, play 5-out basketball with bigs who are 40% 3PT shooters, and go deep into their bench with even more capable shooters (its basically like watching the Celtics). Even top players in the league like 4x All Star Kayla McBride is having her best shooting season and talking in interviews about how her “efficiency” has been exciting. This is a noticeable shift.

So I spent my 4th of July getting in a good workout, eating some healthy food, watching 4 hours of WNBA and capping Friday’s games. I have FOUR best bets for Friday’s action, lets dive into them!

🏀 WNBA Best Bets Friday July 5th 🏀

Dallas Wings -1.5 (0.25u)
Dream @ Wings Under 166.5 (0.25u)

Dallas Wings opened as a +1.5 home underdog and took clear sharp action early, moving this through the 0 and wings as favorites. Its a situation where it looks like 3 points of line movement, but its only 2 because ties are not possible in the WNBA, so 0 is not a number on the line movement scale. We also know from all basketball, 1 point games are an infrequent outcome because of late game fouling. Movement through the 1s, and thru the nonexistent 0, becomes less scary to play into because we know the numbers move quick through less relevant numbers. I am still willing to take a clear sharp side, and a clear under spot, both for 0.25u because I am less concerned with having the best number, but still likely to beat the closing lines.

Aces @ Sparks Under 170.5 (0.25u)
The Vegas Aces are so good its insane. They have the already -600 MVP favorite (before All Star Break no less) in Aja Wilson. They have multiple other Team USA players in Gray, Plum, Young, and the best coach in the W in former Spurs assistant Becky Hammon. The trick to this spot, is that the Aces are traveling for the second night of a B2B and hit the road in LA. The early sharp action on the under hints that some plays may sit because of rest. WNBA B2Bs are very uncommon, its happening more this year because the Olympic break, so we need to factor this into the cap. Taurasi just missed for the Mercury last week on the B2B. I think a small under is wise here, if players are out there may be some playback room.

Sky @ Storm Over 160.5 (0.25u)
As I talked about with Drew Johnson on the recent WNBA podcast, we are looking to target some OVERS right now in the WNBA. Under grabs are situational spots, but the general league trend right now is overs. Over 52.38% of overs have cashed this WNBA season, so they have been blindly profitable! I have also noticed the numbers are generally rising. The Seattle Storm have been scoring relentlessly recently, so I am very happy to grab an over. WNBA games are 40 minutes, so a 160.5 means anything above 4 points a minute pace will be a cashing ticket. Very reasonable expectation.

If you want access to all of my picks in real time, check out the WHOP store linked above! The substack will have summarized cards, but I put it together at the end of the day, and the numbers are moving very quickly. The best way to tail bets at the number I got is to sign up for text messages in real time for my plays! Reach out to me on Twitter with a DM and I will make sure you have the awareness of best promo codes/rates available. Right now you can get $100 off 4-month or 12-month packages, and $50 back in a one month purchase.