Gridiron Gold: Betting NFL Player Props

Week 9 with Adam Levitan

This is the first season doing content that I have not done any writing/podcasting/or posting about Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). I have long considered myself an expert in the DFS space - but when I became a full time sports bettor with the goal of maximizing my bankroll*, I shifted away from DFS for return to player (RTP) reasons. In sports betting, we bet 55 to win 50; in DFS, we enter 50 to win 45. There is a higher house cut, rake rake, or “hold” in the DFS markets, and since they are quite correlated, I shifted to strictly sports betting for the slight increase in edge. This is why I point out “the goal of maximizing a bankroll” - before I was a high level amateur gambling who consistently made money every year, but I enjoyed betting and I enjoyed DFS, so I did them both successfully. Now trying to mathematically reason all of my practices, moving away from DFS has been one of the bigger pivots. However, because of my history in the DFS space, it brings me great pleasure to highlight the work of Adam Levitan and the company he co-founded, Establish The Run.

Establish the Run (ETR) is a primarily a fantasy sports website with extreme focus on the Daily Fantasy Sports aspects within that world. They are just beginning to get into the betting space as a group; and Adam himself openly talks about how he himself doesn’t love sports betting, DFS continues to be his main focus. Regardless of the contests they are entering or the bets they are placing, ETR’s impact on the betting markets is widely understood and causes massive shakes every week. The reason for this is because the incredibly high level and data driven player projection models that they run.

Around 11PM EST on Wednesdays, Establish The Run releases their first crack at player projections. While this data is created by an effort to beat their DFS competition, ETR’s DFS data moves the NFL prop betting market perhaps more than any other content drop. The reason for this is because Establish the Run has the most dedicated data science team - I’ve read through some of their job postings over the years and even as someone who was crushing the DFS space, I was nowhere close to qualifying for a role and never bothered to apply. My expertise is in market reading, and the connections between ETR data and market movement is painfully obvious. They are a team of bottom up originators who study stat sets, data analytics, formational alignments for matchups, and run models and simulations with incredible accuracy.

If you have ever bet a football game with for example a line of -6 and a game total of 48, and the game ends up landing 27-21 with pushes in every direction, you may say to yourself, “how do they know this shit?” If you line up ETR projections with post game box scores, those reactions are readily available 😂.

If you want to successfully beat the betting market on NFL Player Props, then the first place to start is being aware of ETR’s projections and certain players they are keying in on. That does not have to be in the form of a premium subscription - I personally am not subscribed to any of ETR’s services because I am mainly focused on NBA and NFL game markets right now, and I am not playing any DFS this season. They also have recently released a paid picks service which I cannot speak to the record or value of - because I have zero experience with it. However, they have some free articles, free podcasts, and YouTube shows, posts on Twitter/X, and other ways you can get insights into their data.

Using Establish The Runs player projections in comparison to NFL Player Prop markets and simply picking off the biggest discrepancies is likely to be a profitable endeavor. You would need to make sure your risk staking is enough to cover the cost of resources, you would need to make sure your timing on information drops becomes a critical part of your process, and you would need to set thresholds into how many individual bets or cumulative units could be put towards a single game due to bankroll management and variance reasons. Another helpful component of this would be knowing what Establish The Run may struggle in and avoiding certain pitfalls.

While I did reach out to Adam for this piece, I was not able to connect with him. One of the major questions I would have directed his way is, “What is ETR’s biggest weakness when it comes to projections?” This is critical information to know because if the largest market discrepancies come in the areas where ETR projections may be less accurate, then you can end up avoiding those spots rather than placing your biggest wagers into them. See how that could be a catch 22?

Lucky for us, Adam has done plenty of media appearances, and despite hosting a daily podcast myself, trust me when I say I listen more than I speak. I recently heard Adam Levitan on an episode of the betting focused podcast Circles Off, and found a segment where they deep dove player projections very interesting. Adam openly said he thinks one area ETR can improve is with lesser known starter/backup situations. This is rampant in the NFL running back prop markets, where RBs get injured all too frequently and we are left wondering where the workload gets distributed between the remaining guys in the backfield. One recent example of this is the injury to Giants RB Devin Singletary going into NFL Week 5, and the uncertainty regarding the impending workload for Tyrone Tracy Jr. or Eric Gray. Adam acknowledges his team of data scientist will be aware of what coaches and beat writers are saying, study the numbers that they can, but ultimately it kind of comes down to a guess and they may just mark it, Meh- 75%/25% Tracy > Gray in opportunity share. If anything, this is more likely to end up being way too high and too low. It could easily become a “hot hand” situation where if he is not successful in his first few attempts, the next guy gets his chance. In that particular example, Tyrone Tracey had 18 carries to Gray’s 4, and rushed for 129 yards in an incredibly efficient and successful game where the Giants won outright as a full touchdown road underdog at the Seattle Seahawks. While this particular example was successful, it is important to note these spots are more volatile, and while you may notice a larger difference between player projection and prop line, it might not be a false flag. Other things I found very interesting listening to Adam:

1. “We do not see many big edges in touchdown scorer markets” is a direct quote from Adam that I LOVED HEARING. This speaks volumes to me as a bettor who completely avoids this market. The standard hold for these markets within specific games is north of 8%, and the RTP becomes nearly twice as bad as either playing a normal game line or even entering a DFS contest! I personally would rather go play NFL DFS as opposed to bet a touchdown prop - for the sole purpose of mathematically trying to maximize a bankroll. Touchdown props are outright dumb to bet.

2. “One area to improve is quantifying the impact of specific offensive lineman.” Whoa, cool! We have data sets for Quarterbacks, we explored that in Week 4 of this series with Ben Fawkes, we have skill player that are known to be worth a certain amount, we have explored cluster injuries as having a greater impact than the surface level number of one player.

3. ETR run thousands of simulations, and then use the 80% percentile outcome as a “player ceiling” and the 20th percentile outcome as a “player floor.” This shows that while explosions beyond a projected ceiling is bound to occur, when we love a bet or spot, we should consider if the 80th percentile outcome is still a smash spot, because the most trustworthy projections use that as a ceiling. Vice versa, if you are loving the fade of a certain situation, considering the 20th percentile outcome as the floor. Knowing this approach helps level set our emotions when seeing a bet in real time.

I often talk about my friend Mike LaFemina in the DFS space. He is the best NFL and PGA DFS player I know personally. I text him every weekend with fantasy questions and I ask to peep his lineups because I know how sharp he is. He does subscribe to ETR’s player projections and DFS information, and also voiced a strong recommendation for their information. I asked Mike what he values about ETR beyond the projections, and he told me they have the most accurate ownership ratings (to help with roster construction based on contest entry), and enjoys some of their weekly articles like Snaps and Pace, the Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) Leverage Article, and Offensive Line vs Defensive Line Mismatches. Mike was also kind enough to share a snippet of the ETR’s player projections this week. This information is behind a paywall, and without speaking to Adam, I was not comfortable (and probably outright now allowed to) repost a lot of their information. It was very fitting that Mike sent me Kyler Murray and James Connor, because it aligns with one of my best bets on the weekend.

In NFL Week 9, one of the bets that I am on is the Arizona Cardinals -1 vs the Chicago Bears. Here are the ETR projections for both Kyler Murray and James Connor for this matchup. Let’s explore how its impacted the market.

On 10/31, Fanduel released Kyler Murray’s rushing prop to be Ov/Un 31.5. Per ETR, Kyler is projected 6 carries and 34.9 rushing yards. Currently, market consensus on Kyler rushing is 34.5 (-115 over)… ya - thats essentially 34.9.

If you are looking for a prop to still consider betting using this information, look towards backing James Connor. He is projected 80.4 yards, yet you can find his prop at 68.5 (Ov-113 at Fanduel). If you are backing the projection set, there is a large enough difference positive difference in the ETR projection minus the prop price, and it still covers the vig paid for an over. It also follows market trend, as the open was 67.5, the market consensus is above 71.5, FD sits at 68.5, and the projection is above 80. Along with Cardinals -1, this prop was released as a Whop Pick from me this week.

Here are my NFL plays for Week 9. There are 4 strong positions and 0 bad ones in my opinion. If you want access to all of my plays in real time, sign up using the whop linked above. It is a private and locked text chat in which I send alerts when I place new action, as well as drop updates for where lines are and things I am considering. I post recaps before games and results after games on a nightly basis.

The October results were 92-73, hitting 56% of bets, having secondary metrics of +CLV be outstanding, and +8.34units on the month. +8units was on par for goal (would lead to +100units a year), but I also felt the secondary CLV metrics were so strong it should have been higher. I was not too thrilled with average results considering the hindsight of the value obtained, it should have been greater.

I also think 56% is a completely skewed statistic for my style of betting, not because I’m playing juiced odds, quite the opposite, I OFTEN play both sides of a line and tilt my exposure in one direction. Even if I have a winning position on a game, it gets marked technically as 1-1 in the record books. 56% is above expectation in win rate (less middles in NBA season, so it does level the impact off a bit).

There is an ever standing offer that signups can get $50 back (or 17 free days added to their account) in their first month simply by leaving a review on the store page. This essentially makes the package $50 for a month, or close to $2 per day for the first 50 days if you take the 17 free days. I think you will see the value of the whop pretty quickly once joined!