Gridiron Gold: Half Look Aheads

Week 12 with Michael Fiddle

One of the principles I always talk about within betting is evolving. Whether that is with changes in the games or betting landscape, gamblers have to avoid staying stagnant in their approaches. If a bettor applies the same concepts and assumes they maintain the same edge year after year, they will likely get priced out - or at minimum, betting calculations may be incorrect leading to improper bankroll management. There are three major shifts as it relates to NFL betting in recent years.

1. NFL Teasers (2 leg, 6 point Wong legs) are generally too expensive these days with the increase in vig price. The edge has been removed. FanDuel charges -134 for these bets, that’s unplayable in advantage gambling practices (DraftKings still has -120, one of the last places left to do so, play teasers there!).

2. The Key Number scale forever shifts. In the covid years we were seeing booms in scoring - no fans were in attendance, holding calls were down and the product was made for TV. Now with so many teams playing Cover 2, big explosive plays are down and so is scoring. Certain rules changes like moving PATs back and slightly reducing the efficiency had led to more 2 point conversion attempts. We also know kickers are getting more efficient on long distance tries. All of these developments ultimately lead to slight changes in outcome frequencies. More specifically, the numbers 4 and 2 are seeing increased importance in recent years. When these outcome frequencies change, the value of moving onto or off of certain numbers also change, knowing how to line shop for best odds shifts, and the value of certain middles is altered as well.

The third example is look ahead lines. It is more readily available now than ever to be able to bet games weeks in advance. DraftKings priced every single game for the entire season before Week 1 even kicked off! It was not just certain primetime games, certain rivalry games, or certain holiday games like Thanksgiving Thursday. No, now in July I could have bet Week 12 Buccaneers vs Giants Sunday at 1pm. Right now with sportsbooks I have access to: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetRivers, and Bet365 all have lines up for Week 13. Therefore, it has become essential to develop strategies for betting look ahead lines in the NFL.

This week I am promoting some of my own personal strategies I have developed. I think adapting to new changes is a bit of a speciality of mine in this space - since I am constantly studying various approaches, it becomes easy in my mind to wrangle various strategies together to best attack something new in the gambling space. I have come to LOVE BETTING what I call Half Look Aheads. I presume these betting opportunities will be become more discussed and strategically broken down over the next few years, but I have not heard anyone strategically attack the look ahead space within the information I have been exposed to.

Let me first define what I mean by a “HALF” look ahead. A Half Look Ahead means I am betting a game the following week where for one of the teams it is their very next game. This could be due to a bye week, or playing on Thursday Night Football before Sunday, or Sunday Night Football/Monday Night Football after the Sunday afternoon card ends. Right now this would apply to the following teams:

Teams with a bye Week 12: Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets

Teams who already played Week 12 Thursday Night Football: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steeelers

These are the situations I will study in look ahead lines for Week 13 before the Sunday Week 12 slate kicks off. Now we have identified the teams for Half Look Aheads, let’s break down the strategies we can apply ✅.

1. Asymmetric Injury Risk: I am only looking to BACK the teams who do not have a game to play before the one I am betting into. We know the core pieces for Steelers and Browns came out unscathed in the most recent Thursday Night Football game, and we know the relative health status for the teams on bye. We run asymmetric injury risk betting Week 13 before Week 12 is complete. If you choose to bet on the Jets +1 at home next week against the Seattle Seahawks, you know the Jets are not going to sustain a key injury this week - but (knock on wood cuz I’m explaining a theory not actually betting this one) Geno Smith could get hurt, Metcalf or Kenneth Walker could go down again, as we have seen those two elite skill position players already miss time. If any of those players were to miss next week, Jets +1 is an immediate discounted price and a line you likely never see again in the Week 13 reopen market.

2. Apply Week 12 Market Directions to Week 13 Numbers: it is well known that I study the market and know where the odds are moving on NFL/NBA games multiple times each day. If we know the way the Week 12 market moved, and we know what the Week 13 prices have been throughout, we can see if its worth it to apply Week 12 directions to Week 13 games. If the sharp side plays out in Week 12, then week 13 numbers will likely shake in those directions.

To me it is brutally obvious that the Ravens/Chargers game has taken significant action to the OVER. 49ers @ Packers has seen significant lengthening of the Packers odds because of the injuries to Purdy and Bosa for San Francisco. The Giants benched, then released Daniel Jones to start Tommy DeVito and the total dropped 2 full points from 42.5 to 40.5. We also know thats not coming from the Buccaneers side as they return Mike Evans, and their ATS price has lengthened this week. The Bucs team total has remained the same, and the under was essentially chopped from the expected points of the NY Giants. Therefore, Giants UNDERS, fadings the 49ers ATS, as well as Ravens and Chargers OVERS all need to be studied in the look ahead market. Lets take a look:

APPLYING THESE STRATEGIES

In week 13 the Ravens play the Eagles. Both teams still play in week 12, this is not a half look ahead and is ignored.

The Chargers play the Falcons - Falcons are on bye. That means the Chargers/Falcons does represent a half look ahead spot where the Chargers still have to play. I could back the Falcons or play into the over direction the Chargers game has taken. Looking at the numbers and line histories, OVER 46.5 is available at DraftKings and the line has not moved since 11/19. In that time period, the Ravens/Chargers Week 12 over definitely has.

So now lets price shop the OVER 46.5 for Chargers/Falcons Week 13. We can already see FanDuel moved this to 48.5, and let the Week 12 odds board impact the look ahead market. Catch up, DraftKings (actually please don’t this is so nice)! There is a live 2 point discrepancy - that is SO INCREDIBLY RARE to see in an NFL market and nearly impossible to spot at the same time for games that week. No chance.

I can also use my key numbers chart to understand the relative value of the line discrepancy between DraftKings and Fanduel. When I look up totals key numbers 47 is the second most common outcome this season in weeks 1-8 (I update again after Week 12 this week, so this is my most up to date). In the last 3 seasons prior to this year, 48 was the 7th most common outcome (47 is lower than that).

In the last 3 seasons before 24-25 NFL, 47 and 48 has a combined outcome frequency of 5.89%. That is for all NFL games regardless of where they are priced and does not include the added boost that games priced at a number are more likely to land at/right next to that number. A game like Bears/Vikings priced at 39.5, or Steelers Browns in the snow this past Thursday priced at 37 had a lower chance of landing at 47/48 than Falcons Chargers next week does. Since both DraftKings and FanDuel have -110 on both sides of the line, immediately opening the middle is 5% implied probability, and thus opening this up now is IMMEDIATELY +EV for Week 13.

This collective information tells me that betting Over 46.5 is an IMMEDIATE take, as well as a fractional playback already on the 48.5 to open the middle. As of now, I have 4units on the Over 46.5, and 1unit played back on the under 48.5. I probably look to play 1 more unit back next week depending on where the lines move- give me a 51! Sound the alarms, this is a…

🚨🚨 BEST BET ALERT 🚨🚨
LA Chargers @ ATL Falcons Over 46.5 (4units, -110 DraftKings)
LA Chargers @ ATL Falcons Under 48.5 (1unit, -110 Fanduel)

The 49ers play the Buffalo Bills next week, and the Bills are on bye. So this is a potential Bills spot. However, all of the betting lines have been pulled. If you see it back up, Bills were -3.5 in the pricing before it was pulled off the board, and that would probably be worth grabbing for 0.75units. It is not a hammer spot because 4 is not very middle worthy on its own, and Purdy and Bosa were both close to playing it seemed, so I would expect them back next week.

Lastly, the Giants play the Cowboys on short Week Thanksgiving Thursday. This is NOT a half look ahead because both teams play on Sunday Week 11. However, the under is already priced at 38.5 at Fanduel, 39 at DraftKings, and 39.5 at Bet365 (-110). I will take a full unit now on that under. We already know Dak is out for the season and Daniel Jones was released - neither starting QB is coming back for this game. While this does not classify as a half look ahead, the injury risk looms a bit on both sides. We also have to understand injury risk could come to the defense and make scoring easier - so its not always a boost for unders. The short week and early start primetime game makes me like the spot regardless.

All of these picks and look ahead spots have already been sent out in the whop chat linked above. I am scheduling this email to be sent at 8am ET Sunday November 24th, and I am unsure if these will still be available. The value of the whop is being notified of these betting opportunities in real time - like a 5unit middle for a game on December 1st that I am already so excited for. And another 1unit play for Thanksgiving Thursday.

I am also making December completely free for all people in the Whop. Holiday SZN is free at The Advantage. If you sign up between now and December 1st, your account will be credited with 31 free days on December 1. I will not be crediting people who join in December, you must get in first!

If you have been considering signing up, now is probably the highest value opportunity!