Gridiron Gold: Wong Teaser Strategy
Week 3 with Stanford Wong
Last week on Gridiron Gold, we were introduced to the greatest sports bettor of all time, Billy Walters. We discussed how Walters quantifies the effects of a Super Bowl hangover on NFL point spreads. Walters gives a slight boost to the winner and downgrades the Super Bowl loser by a few “game factor” points for the first four weeks of the following season. We applied Walters' concepts to the Week 2 lines for both of last year's Super Bowl teams, the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Looking back on the results, the Super Bowl-losing 49ers lost outright to the Minnesota Vikings, while the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs led a game-winning fourth-quarter drive to beat the Cincinnati Bengals.
When looking at the odds for Week 3 of the NFL, it is clearly time to introduce Stanford Wong and deep dive valuable strategies for betting NFL teasers. Of the 15 remaining games on the card, 40% of them have spreads that qualify as Wong teaser leg candidates. This provides ample opportunity to apply this strategy right away! We will cover who Stanford Wong is and his contributions to the betting world, what a teaser bet is and how to derive value from it, some baseline rules to apply, when it’s acceptable to break those rules, and additional value tricks not typically discussed within “Wong teaser legs.” Let’s go!
Who is Stanford Wong? John Ferguson is Stanford Wong.
Yup, fun fact number 1 about Wong- it’s a pen name. He’s an author who is really named John Ferguson. Since his contributions to the betting world are in large form the books he authored, and since he is widely known in the industry by his pen name Stanford Wong, I am going to call him Stanford Wong throughout this article. Wong authored 19 books about advantage gambling strategies. His work covered blackjack strategies (for card counters and non counters), video poker strategies, optimal approaches for tournaments, and most famously in the sports gambling world his book “Sharp Sports Betting.”
Wong’s book details a lot of basics to sports gambling, but what emerged as the staple strategy within the literature was the detailed look at NFL Teaser Bets and deriving value from them. Wong’s name has become synonymous with optimally playing teaser bets - but here is the funny thing - professional gamblers were definitely aware of these things before they were so clearly illustrated for the masses. Wong gets a legendary legacy attached to him in the sports gambling space, akin to Sigmund Freud getting "Freudian Slip” to live on in history which just means- saying the thing you are actually thinking about…
On a side note- I have been trying to institute the “Fiddles Forget.” This occurs when you go to checkout in a store but realize you forgot to grab one last thing 😂😂.
What is an NFL Teaser Bet?
I assume most people reading this understand what the teaser is, but for those who do not, a teaser involves an exchange of points for volume. The bettor buys some number of points, and in return, must play two or more selections in a modified parlay. This is most commonly done in the NFL, which allow 6, 6.5, 7, and sometimes even 10 point teasers. The amount of legs you have to pair, and the correlated odds you receive vary based on choosing the teaser type and the amount of teaser legs. Stanford Wong cracked the code to mathematically understand how to obtain value most efficiently with the teaser feature.
How does a bettor gain an advantage? Basic Wong Teaser Rules
The most basic Stanford Wong approach says a teaser is valuable to an NFL bettor when using the 6 point, 2 team teaser which pays out -120 odds. More specifically, the point spreads you choose to move 6 points MUST CROSS THROUGH the most important NFL key numbers, 3 and 7.
So we understand ideal Wong Teaser Legs are moving an underdog priced between +1.5 and +2.5, and pushing it up to +7.5 or +8.5. Value wise, this works equally on the inverse, taking a favorite down from -8.5 or -7.5, crossing through key numbers and landing at -2.5 or -1.5.
By sticking to these principles, you avoid pitfalls of teasers where value is clearly lost - like teasing an NFL total instead of a spread, teasing through the 0 and making a slight favorite into a slight underdog, and teasing through less relevant numbers, like making a sizeable underdog even bigger (+8.5 to +14.5 seems cute, its not). Another example of losing value by avoiding wong rules is playing into teasers north of -125. Some books are becoming keen to the advantage of these teasers and have removed the edge by pricing them around -130. Do not pay that!
What are other advantages not commonly discussed?
1. Use the game total to indicate the weighted value of points. When teasing an underdog from below +3 to above +7, it is also correlated and advantageous to do so when the game total is low. In the NFL, 41 is the most common outcome, and since we have seen reduced scoring over the last two seasons, I believe it is safe to use that as a benchmark median number. When the ability to tease an underdog up to +8.5 exists and the game total is only 38, it becomes quite obvious that the favorite winning by 9 or more in a low-scoring game is unlikely; thus, the teaser leg becomes even more valuable. This specific strategy of using depressed totals while teasing underdogs applies to the Green Bay Packers this week. As of this writing, they are +2.5 road underdogs to the Tennessee Titans and can be teased up to +8.5 in a game with a total of 37.5.
If a low game total is correlated with a more advantageous teaser leg, then the opposite is true for a high game total, which is less advantageous. Stanford Wong believes that totals above 50 should be excluded from consideration because the volume of scoring creates more variance and removes the edge. Despite the Arizona Cardinals spending much of the week as a +2.5-point favorite, they were not a Wong teaser candidate because the total is 51.5.
2. Pair teasers together in different time windows. This is an underrated part of teaser strategy. Since 40% of this week’s remaining games have spreads that could qualify as Wong teaser legs, choosing which ones to pair together can feel like picking a rabbit out of a hat. Unless you dig a little deeper… If each leg inherently carries value, then remaining flexible within your positions is also beneficial. By pairing legs that are not occurring in the same time slot, you can rebet the second leg if the first one loses. You also maintain “outs” if the first one hits but you want to get off the second leg. If you cannot decide which to pair together, allowing kickoff time to be the final decider is wise.
3. Understanding Line Movement into, out of, or through the Wong Zone.
I mentioned above that the Packers were +2.5 with a game total of 37.5. Despite those being textbook Wong numbers, it is very important to understand the context of the game and where the line may move before kickoff. In this particular instance, I would NOT tease the Packers up because this line hinges on Jordan Love’s availability. He has participated in limited practices but has yet to be formally cleared by the Packers' medical staff. Despite being listed as questionable, it appears he is much closer to doubtful. If and when Jordan Love is finally deemed out, this Packers line will likely move through +3, making teasing the +2.5 to +8.5 premature. I would much rather play a +3.5 as a straight bet than have a teaser of +2.5 to +8.5 when the game closes at +3.5.
Just as we can find places to avoid teasers, there are also ways to use line movement as a boost! In the 2023-24 NFL season, the most successful teaser leg was choosing a team that opened as a -1.5 favorite and closed as a +1.5 point underdog. This is intriguing because the line moves into the teaser zone, allowing you to obtain all the value of a Wong leg while also benefiting from not just +6 points but rather +9 points from the opening line. Since the NFL is a sharp and efficient betting market, having such distance from a reliable opening line is advantageous.
4. Manipulating Vig with the Teaser Feature.
If a 2-team, 6-point teaser has standard odds of -120 using individual legs of -110, what happens if the legs you choose are -115 or -120?
In theory, by increasing the vig on each individual leg, you are increasing the expected hit rate and should pay slightly more than -120 on the teaser. But that does not happen; it stays at the same price!
It becomes another boost of value to plug a +1.5 (-120) line into a teaser because the teaser machine will automatically assume it's a -110. You can save some money on the margins by including slightly juiced lines in teasers. One example of this is the Dallas Cowboys this week at +1.5 (-120) against the Baltimore Ravens.
Mastering the vig trick allows you to occasionally break the rules for teasing through a 0 or on an NFL total while still obtaining value on what's typically a -EV teaser bet.
I learned the vig trick by listening to Steve Fezzik, who will come up later in this series when we review contest strategies.
Strategy Applied to Week 3. The following 6 lines qualify as possible teaser candidates:
Vikings +2 vs Texans
Chargers +2.5 @ Steelers
Eagles +2.5 @ Saints
Packers +2.5 @ Titans
Bears +1.5 @ Colts
Cowboys +1.5 vs Ravens
Bengals -7.5 vs Commanders
Chargers +2.5 is my favorite teaser leg of the week. The game total is the lowest on the entire card at 35 points, providing room to reach +8.5. This line did have moments at Chargers +3, which would have been a good ticket to play, but now, with consensus at +2.5, it’s undoubtedly a strong teaser leg.
Cowboys +1.5 (-120) is a great option for the vig trick, line movement, and kickoff time. The line opened at Cowboys -1 before some action came in on the Ravens. Now they are +1.5 and can be pushed up to +7.5, and the vig can be shaved using the teaser machine. This game is also during the 4 PM window, while the others are played concurrently.
I personally like the Eagles in a teaser because I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the Saints being 2-0 and an overreaction to the Eagles' loss to the Falcons, which had less than a 2% chance of happening with under 2 minutes left in the game. However, with a game total of 49.5 and this line touching Eagles +3 earlier this week, I would understand staying away from this one.
BEST BET: Chargers +8.5/Bengals -1.5 (1unit)
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