NBA Best Bets Tuesday February 13th
2 Overs, 1 Favorite
Despite not liking my positions yesterday, I came out 2-2 and slightly profitable by winning the bigger wagers. I have faced the good process/bad results evenings time and time again. In the rare moment of bad process, it was refreshing to have good results.
Reminder: Check out the email/post I put up yesterday detailing betting Lebron to score 40K regular season points. There is a high value opportunity waiting to be taken advantage of.
Anyways, few NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, let’s break them down.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday February 13th 🏀
Timberwolves @ Trailblazers Ov 215.5 (-112 at BetRivers), 2.5u
This number is too low! Despite the Wolves having the leagues best defense, they are in a situational spot that favors heavy legs and bad defense. The Wolves are on the second leg of a B2B with a trip traveling into Portland, who doesnt present the strongest competition. I expect the effort levels to be a bit lower, and both teams to score with increased efficiency. We are also seeing heavy money and market trends towards the over. There was 216 or higher universally on the board, except for a 215.5 at BetRivers, until Caesars came online at 214.5. Its giving me breif pause, but at this point my bets are in and I am hoping Caesars ticks it up to reach market consensus. I believe the late post and low number is a reaction to their game tonight where the wolves defense looked fierce (pun intended), and not wanting to take immediate under action.
Pheonix Suns -4.5 (-112 at BetRivers), 2u
Key number on a favorite! At Home! Playing well! Healthy! Vs. a team thats been kinda struggling. The Kings have a 30-22 record, but their net rating closer resembles a .500 team. Meanwhile, the Suns are incredibly good when healthy, and now get the added role players they brought in at the deadline, most notably Royce O’Neal. Anytime I am playing the -4.5, its for more than 1unit. I originally paused at 1 because the -112 juice, but then I tacked on another unit because the spot is valuable despite paying a bit extra.
Pistons @ Lakers Ov 236.5 (PointsBet), 1u
One of the sharpest spots on the Tuesday NBA board appears to be the Pistons @ Lakers over. This line opened at 236.5, where I was lucky enough to grab an opening line. As I’ve written a few times over, the Pistons are playing 5 out ball and shooting so many 3s in the last few weeks, and their season totals compared to recent play is not aligned. The consensus market continues to be a few points shy, and opening lines are trending up. Here is yet another example. I am seeing 48% of the bets, but 76% of the money towards the over. I played for 1u because I did not expect enough movement to be able to play it back, however already looking at the current market I wish I played it bigger.