NFL Week 2 Best Bets
and a DFS Core 4
NFL Week 2 is underway and I got a massive 18 bet card going into Sunday!
I am already 2-1 on NFL Player props from Thursday’s game and I am halfway home with a teaser on Bills +8/Lions -1. I am currently ahead of the market on 13 of these 19 positions (2 are flat, and this is actually slightly below my normal +CLV rate), and I am tilted in a direction where if market number hold I walk away +2.4units and +22% ROI. When I set myself up well like this, I think I did my job - now lets see if the players do theirs!
Here is a screenshot of my bet tracker with all the plays listed. I am not going to put them into my nice graphics this week, it simply wouldn’t fit 😂.
I am not going to summarize every play, instead let me explain what I feel are my single best and worst bets on the card.
BEST BET: Ravens -2/Lions -1.5 Teaser (-120)
When I made the move on this bet, I knew it was instantly +EV and checked seemingly every box on deriving value out of a teaser. Both of the legs are “Wong Teaser Legs” - we are going to deep dive what this means in the Gridiron Gold series soon, but I was using the teaser to cross through the most valuable numbers where buying insurance points becomes worthwhile. I was getting -120 odds available at DraftKings - most sports books no longer give -120 on 2-team 6pt teasers because its been mathematically shown to be +EV for the bettor, some books charge -134 in which I would never place the bet. Finally, the Ravens leg was the only -8 on the market and was juiced to -112. Trick with teasers, it doesnt matter what the juice on each leg is, the teaser will spit out -120! So you can get more edges by sticking -112s and -115s in there and defacto making it a -110.
WORST BET: Bengals +4 (-110)
Ewwww. Being 1.5-2 NFL points behind a closing line, and when the line was at +6 for a large portion of the week, holding a +4 is just disgusting. I placed this bet in the preseason, when JaMarr Chase contract was thought to be easy to resolve, when Tee Higgins had two healthy hamstrings, when Joe Burrow’s wrist was of 0 concern, and when they were 0-0 and not 0-1 after losing a home game to Jacoby Brisset and the Patriots. Grabbing this look ahead spot felt perfect in the preseason. Burrow has been great in Arrowhead and I thought this line could close at +3 like previous matchups between these teams. A lot has changed in a short time and now this ticket is gross. When this does end up covering 🤞🏼, I will acknowledge that sometimes its better to be lucky than good!
WEEK 2 DFS CORE 4
QB: Jayden Daniels ($6,200)
RB: Jordan Mason ($5,200)
RB: Breece Hall ($7,400)
WR: Cooper Kupp ($7,600)
Do not leave Breece or Kupp off your DFS team this week! DraftKings is full PPR, and these two are likely going to feast with easy opportunities!
The $5 sale to get access for the first month of my picks officially ended last week, BUT reach out to me if you are interested and I don’t mind reopening that and making the first time access a bit cheaper.
So far I have only two losing days in September. Yesterday was -0.36u and previous was -1.32u. I send direct notifications of any new play, I post daily summaries of all my picks, and at the end of the evening recap the results with my filled out bet tracker. I also held office hours this week for whop members to come ask me any questions about any gambling topics - and plan to do this more often. Reach out to me to gain access!