NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Sides, Totals, Props - and even some WNBA Playoff Plays
Since I sent a 5 page NFL betting strategy newsletter yesterday - I’ll make this one quick and get right to the plays. No fluff just good stuff, here is my Week 4 NFL card and some final thoughts.
· Between now and kickoff I may dump some of the Broncos +8. With Alex Singleton being a mid week injury and a key part of the Denver defense, the line moved from -7.5 back onto the 8. We know a pro group hit +8 on Broncos side, and we know a different syndicate came back in on Jets -7. This was destined to close at -7.5 and be good bets on both sides, until unexpected injury news pushed the Jets side further. I missed the window to play +8, obtain some CLV, and then take on a Jets teaser. I could tease the Jets down to -2, it is still a wong leg, but then I would have to add on another bet, the obvious choice becomes the Colts which I do like… hmm.. there are options, and no need to make a decision until about 30 minutes before kickoff.
· More Broncos related thoughts, my favorite prop I bet was Javonte Williams Ov 13.5 rec yards. It is 14.5 (-114 at FD) currently, and I completely support still playing that. Williams has been elite in pass protection for Denver, allowing 0 pressures on Bo Nix through the first 3 weeks. That is so important for a rookie QB, and the Sean Payton offense often finds the RB in the pass game. Javonte has long showed pass catching chops, and hit this over in the first quarter last week.
· Falcons -2.5, Colts ML, and Ravens/Bills Under 46.5 are the three bets staring me in the face but I have not made a move to take any action. Typing out this reflection is helpful, because I am realizing in real time here that I like Colts ML, so the teaser option on Jets down to -2 and tacking on Colts is indeed good value on a -120 DraftKings teaser, and probably the best way to go about dumping some Broncos +8 while also being able to middle it. Cool. Thats the plan, but waiting until I have to. If you have no bets currently on those positions, I think a Colts/Jets Stanford Wong teaser makes a lot of sense.
· I am ecstatic to be holding a 3unit Packers -2.5 ticket with the board fairly universally at a -3. I played this prior to Packers vs Titans while forecasting the Jordan Love news. That is the biggest hook to get in the NFL, on a big 3u play.
In fact, as of this writing right now you can set up a positive middle with Packers at the -3 in Week 5. There is a Rams +3.5 (-105) at Fanduel and a Packers -3 (-110) at DraftKings, and playing both is absolutely a positive value middle. Play between 1-3u on these lines immediately, I strongly recommend that. I bet 1unit both ways.
There is a second positive value middle on the board right now between Fanduel and Bet365. Go look at Monday Night Football for Week 5 and play both Saints/Chiefs OVER 43.5 (-115, FanDuel) and UNDER 45.5 (-110, Bet365). I bet 2.5units both ways.
These are both about +1% to the bettor. Doing this eliminates the sports book “hold.” The only thing being “hold” is your money in pending wager for 7-8 days, but literally it inverses the expected house cut to the negative, and gives the bettor a +value hold LOL.
I put quite a few of these in the WHOP chat already for next week, that is a huge value of what I provide - directly sending you a push notification and alerting you in real time to these middles. The Saints/Chiefs position above has a max loss of 0.25u and a max win of 5units. It’s a 20:1 ticket essentially. Instead of parlays - set up positive value longshots.
AND My picks package sale is remaining active until the end of September!
From now until October 1st, the monthly package on my WHOP store page has a promo code offering $5 for the first month! Thats $95 off!
Using the link above, choose the monthly package and use code “September”
Instead of paying $100 per month, the first month is 5 bucks. You can cancel at any time!
Let’s make the first month incredibly easy to get access, let’s win together, and let’s have future months pay for themselves and then some! Of course, this shows a hopeful optimism to win, but I do expect the vast majority of my wagers to be +CLV, my betting portfolio to always be +EV, and ultimately it should be profitable.
Little hint: the highest +EV way to get access would be to sign up for the monthly package for $5, and if you enjoy the private chat, cancel monthly and sign up for the bulk year at cheaper (which also has $100 off promo code).
I will also make the $50 back if you leave a review on the store page eligible in the second month for anyone who is paying $5 for the first month! Thats 1 month at $5 or first 2 months at $55 total!