Week 3 Full Betting Card
LOADED SUNDAY EMAIL!
Below is the final betting card for Week 3, my Core 4 for DraftKings Daily Fantasy lineups, write ups for new bets, a guide to handling the few potential places for buybacks, and even a few week ahead bets already placed for Week 4.
REMINDER! Today is also the last day the Free Desmond Ridder Rookie Card Giveaway is running. All you have to do is comment on this post, and you are entered to win! Let me know which bet is your favorite, which one you dislike the most, or just let me know what type of sandwich you are getting for the game. I’m always Italian combo or chicken parm hero.
Good luck & enjoy your Sunday!
Newly Added Bets
Carolina Panthers +6.5 (-110), +7 (-128), ML (+230). All 0.25u exposure
When the news that Bryce Young would be out, and the Panthers would actually have veteran Andy Dalton at QB in a road game visiting the 12th man Seattle Seahawks, I knew I was going to play the Panthers. I initially saw the line move from 6 to 6.5 at all books, and so I waited to see if a 7 would pop up. When all the lines began moving back to 6, I grabbed one of the 6.5’s, I paid for the hook to the +7, and took a small exposure on the money line. Insider substack secret, the hook onto the 7 is worth 17c on the dollar, and by moving from -110 to -128, i paid 18c. But, in this case I had a really strong feeling on my handicap, I was playing it low exposure, I knew CLV was coming (so current +7 cannot be had at -128), and truthfully, i just didnt want to look like a schmuck if this game ends in a 7. So I split the exposure and entered the Panthers side of the market.
Jets +8.5/Saints +7.5 Teaser (-120, DraftKings 1u)
Let me explain why these two teaser legs presented the most value on the slate. The Jets are #1, because we push them from 2 to +8.5, through all of the most important numbers, and the total for this game is 36.5. There is CLEAR correlation between a game with such low projected points, and having the dog against a high spread. The Saints are the second strongest teaser leg because they too are the sharp side of the market and fit the wong criteria. Other wong legs like Ravens are still valuable (I’m on it in another teaser), but the sharp side of that game is the Colts.
Bears @ Chiefs Under 48.5 (0.5u, DraftKings)
For the first time this season, I directly followed someone else’s advice and handicap here. I took this bet from Warren Sharp. And when sharpy bets something, we should too, blindly. It’s a half unit cap because its not my cap, although I do agree with it.
You can use these buttons to view Bet Write Ups from earlier this week
Potential Buyback Opportunities
If you tailed my bets earlier this week and have the same numbers as me, this is how I am proceeding on Sunday before kickoff:
1. Cowboys @ Cardinals Ov 43: if this gets to 44, 25% buyback Under 44.
2. Texans @ Jaguars Un 44.5: currently at 43.5 is a 25% buyback Ov 43.5. If it gets to 43, then 33% buyback.
3. Panthers @ Seahawks Un 42.5: if this gets to 41.5, 20% buyback ov 41.5
If you are crazy enough to make it this far down the email, first, thank you! The bonus is here are some bets already placed for next week! I’ll add write ups later on.
1. Ravens @ Browns Under 44.5 (Caesars, 1u)
2. Titans +1.5 (DraftKings, 0.5u)
3. Bengals @ Titans Under 44 (DraftKings, 0.75u)