Week 3 Mid Week Check In

Below is my Best Bets for Week 3 so far, and I have included write ups for any bets that are newly added since the Monday morning email.

These already have descriptions!

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Under 45 (0.5u)
Tennessee Titans +4.5 (1.25u)
Philadelphia Eagles ML (-240, 0.5u)
Baltimore Ravens -1.5/Buffalo Bills -0.5 Teaser (-120, 1.2u)

These are new!

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals Ov 43 (1u)
Through two weeks, the Arizona Cardinals have shown they are indeed tanking, but also have shown they can score some points! They have a solid run game, a mobile quarterback, and some WRs who lift the top off the defense to open things underneath. On the Dallas side, the story of the season has been how impressive their defense has been. To me this is a buy low/sell high moment we so often look for in the NFL. Arizona at home should be able to score, and the Cowboys offense with McCarthy calling plays is running sound and smooth. Lets throw the public narrative aside and play the over.

Minnesota Vikings +1 (0.5u)
Certainly some weird signals in this market. Vikings open as a home dog despite going against the 0-2 Chargers and being a dominant home team (Vikings have the 2nd strongest Home Field Advantage ATS over the last decade). By Tuesday mid day, nearly every line had flipped this to Vikings -1, so I found the 1 spot left with a +1 and grabbed it. I know the #1 is the 6th most common outcome in NFL games, so getting CLV on a 1 flip is pretty valuable. And then the market flipped back… Weird!!! Its now back to Vikings +1, Chargers as a road favorite, and thus I worked back off this for half a unit. I still like the home underdog in a building they shine in. So I have a half unit exposure left on the Vikings +1.

Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (1u)
This bet was given out live on the YouTube stream! I was preparing for the show, and I noticed the betting splits to show the Raiders to be the smart side, but there was no movement in the market to support it. Aside from good looking betting splits, I also knew the Raiders were home dogs with rest/prep/travel advantage as the Steelers will be a road team coming off a Monday Night Football game. On the stream, I noticed everything had moved to -2.5 except WynnBet, so i grabbed it! I’m ok taking Raiders -2.5 for a smaller bet, the difference between 1 and 2 is not super significant in football, especially with these more traditional play style teams.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Un 44.5 (1u)
Despite the Jaguars being 2-0, they are nearly league leaders in 3 and Outs. They have explosive plays, but they also havent been able to sustain long scoring drives. Some speed bumps for a potential break through team. The Texans are run first with a defense that is actually strong against the QB. I expect both teams a run heavy approach, and the ability to get the hook on 44, a key number, i jumped in!

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks Un 42.5 (1u)
Despite a very slow start for the Seahawks defense this season, I still see them as a strong unit. On the other hand, the Panthers have a decent defense and next to no offense. We also have Bryce Young entering the Seattle atmosphere and taking on the 12th man. I know I mentioned the Vikings as 2nd strongest home field advantage, welp, Seattle is number 1.

Heres the caveat- Bryce Young may be hurt. If Bryce Young misses the game, Andy Dalton will start. I know sharp groups have Dalton as a full 2 points better than Young against the spread and in the totals. If Young still isnt practicing later this week with signs of Dalton starting, I will likely take a small bite of a Panthers Spread, Panthers ML, and try and rebuy the over at +CLV.


Announcements!

• TONIGHT, Thursday 9/21 at 7PM EST, Alex Cohen and I will be going live on YouTube to break down the entire Week 3 DFS Board. We will review High Spend, Mid Tier, and Value Options at each position, talk stack targets, GPP pivot points, and give out some Best Bet Player Props. We will give out a prop for the Thursday Night Football game. Come join us, bring questions!
  

• Week 3 Slate Breakdown Video is on YouTube! I go through every game and the betting angles. These are very high value gambling content so you can see how I react to lines in real time and talk it all through. This will be a weekly YouTube live, I hope you can come join the next one!
  

• My new podcast feed for The Advantage is pending approval by all the networks, I will provide a link for that as soon as it is ready! All YouTube Videos will also be available on the podcast feed.
  

• Of course, there’s still 101 ways to enter the Desmond Ridder Rookie Card Giveaway. One of them is simply leaving a comment below. Let me know which Best Bets you have tailed, which you are fading, or let me know what you think of my live steams so far!

• Graphic for TNF: