Week 3 NFL Best Bets
and WNBA Playoffs Round 1!
Sunday, September 22nd, is a massive collision between NFL Week 4 and the first day of the 2024 WNBA Playoffs. As of now, I have 27 units risked in pending wagers that will process within the next 24 hours. That is the most money I’ve had down on a single day or slate for as long as I can remember. There are always a few times when an NFL and NBA Sunday align with a high-volume card, but this is both high volume and features a few spots with significant exposure.
Despite having a large card, it is not as stressful as it sounds! A lot of them are my beloved FIDDLE’S MIDDLE’S spots, where I play both sides of a line after obtaining closing line value from a bet made earlier in the week. On this card, I already have five middles established, and I will be looking for one or two more tomorrow morning.
Here is a screenshot of my bet tracker with all the plays listed. Once again, I am not going to put them into my nice graphics this week; it simply wouldn’t fit. 😂
THIS CARD IS DOMINANT! 24 positions are ahead of the market, 5 are flat bets with the odds currently still available, and 2 are behind with -CLV. Here are the three NFL “flat” bets broken down, you can decide if you still want to play them!
1. Javonte Williams Ov 15.5 Rec Yards (+105 Bet365): Javonte saw an increase in snap count from week 1 to 2, going from around 50% to seeing 66% of the Broncos offensive snaps. He is the clear lead running back and has pass catching abilities. With Nix under center and the Bucs D line missing a few key players, I expect Williams to be efficient in the pass game again.
2. Ravens ML (-112 FD): I am calling this a flat bet because the best ML currently available for the Ravens are -113 BetRivers and -116 FanDuel. It has moved 1cent on the dollar, which is more or less flat. Calling that CLV would be kinda corny because the movement is not enough to beat the vig tax associated with playing these lines. However, I am confident in the Ravens on Sunday. There was a pro group who bet the Ravens on Friday and pushed them to a slight favorite. We also know from preseason the Cowboys were being faded by sharps, and I think we should remember our preseason priors just 3 weeks in.
3. Saquon Barkely Ov 20.5 Rec Yards (-115): The best line for this is Ov 21.5 (-113) at Fanduel. It is a slight reduction in vig but one yard more, another example where my minor CLV does not beat the house hold and were standing flat. I think the Eagles wont fear going to Quon again, they are down AJ Brown and the game total has increased since the open. I am on an under 48.5 (0.75u) which is -CLV, so I indirectly hedged off with a Saquon Over rec prop (0.3u).
My picks package sale is remaining active until the end of September!
From now until October 1st, the monthly package on my WHOP store page has a promo code offering $5 for the first month! Thats $95 off!
Using the link above, choose the monthly package and use code “September”
Instead of paying $100 per month, the first month is 5 bucks. You can cancel at any time!
Let’s make the first month incredibly easy to get access, let’s win together, and let’s have future months pay for themselves and then some! Of course, this shows a hopeful optimism to start out the NFL season well, but I do expect the vast majority of my wagers to be +CLV, my betting portfolio to always be +EV, and ultimately it should be profitable.
Little hint: the highest +EV way to get access would be to sign up for the monthly package for $5, and if you enjoy the private chat, cancel monthly and sign up for the bulk year at cheaper (which also has $100 off promo code).
I will also make the $50 back if you leave a review on the store page eligible in the second month for anyone who is paying $5 for the first month.